In the
Cold Light of Reason
Now that (many of us hope) the Trump era is truly over and
done, it might be useful to examine with data and reason, not emotion, the
results of four years of the most morally challenged man to hold the office of
POTUS (It’s actually probably a three- way tie Buchanan/Harding/Trump, but
Trump’s open support of insurrection on his behalf gives him the edge in my
opinion)
Rather than
rehash the several poor character issues, which are common knowledge, even if
his acolytes ignore them, I will analyze those actions which can be evaluated
with data or by analyzing the reactions of others affected by them.
Border Security:
“Mexico will pay for
the wall!” No, just no, they haven’t,
and they won’t. Period.
In terms of detaining attempted undocumented
crossings, the Trump years have seen an increase over the four years span, but
the fact is that 86% of U.S. adults believe it also very or somewhat important
to increase the number of judges handling asylum cases, and 82% said it is
important to provide safe and sanitary conditions for asylum seekers once they
arrive in the country. This same survey was very critical of fragmenting
detainee families.
While the raw
numbers of detainees are high, it must be noted that coincident with the first
Trump year and continuing throughout his term there was a huge increase in
families from below Mexico, seeking asylum from violent and corrupt regimes.
Even so, here is some raw data: The peak “Trump year”, 2018, saw 337,281 “removals”
by both ICE and Border patrol. In 2013, under the Obama administration, 432,281
removals were enacted by those same agencies. In a single sentence, the border
was more effectively, and at the same time, humanely policed during the Obama
administration.
While Trump has
seemed to glory in splitting families, the Obama administration did not, and in
fact, for families remaining here until asylum hearings, more than 90% were
present for those hearings; those with attorneys were present more than 95%. I
cite these stats because Trump, as he is prone to do, stated in a debate with
President elect Biden, that “less than 1 percent” of undocumented immigrants
showed up for their hearings, He continued with: “When you say they come back,
they don’t come back, Joe. They never come back. Only the really — I hate to
say this — but those with the lowest IQ, they might come back.” This has been proven blatantly false by every
study ever conducted. It is, in short, a typical Trump lie.
Economic Policy:
One has to wonder that Trump actually graduated from a university
which prides itself on having one of the nation’s premiere business schools.
Trump, who once described himself as having graduated with “One of the highest
GPAs ever”, in fact just “graduated”. Period. No honors. And definitely no MBA
(advanced degree).
In considering
economic policy, context is important. In
saying that, I mean that events which are outside the control of POTUS can, and
do, influence economic conditions such as Budget deficit and policy decisions. In
considering the Trump record it is not only fair, but essential, to disregard a
significant portion of the 2020 deficit due to the pandemic. It is, however,
certainly germane to consider Trump’s reactions to it later in this op-ed9.
Budget:
While campaigning as a deficit hawk, Candidate Trump said: "We’ve got to get rid of the $19
trillion in debt. ... Well, I would say over a period of eight years. And I’ll
tell you why.” He then made several generalities re: debt/deficit. During the
2016 primaries, he was again asked about the national debt, this time by Bob
Woodward:
Trump: “I think I could do it fairly
quickly, because of the fact the numbers —”.
Woodward: “What’s fairly quickly?”
Trump: “Well, I would say over a period of eight years.”
In fact. When Trump made this statement, eliciting
raspberries from every credible economist in the nation, the federal debt was,
as he said, about 19 trillion, much of which was the result of extended federal
stimulus during the great recession. This alone should have been the trumpet
call signifying that Trump was an economic dunce. In fact, the debt service (interest
payment) alone on the national debt then was over 11% of annual federal
spending and, naturally increases as the debt does. Four years later, while
admittedly partially due to the global pandemic, the US federal deficit is 29.5
trillion, an increase of almost 50%. Factoring out COVID-19 related spending it
is still over 25 trillion.
I mention
context earlier because the president in large measure “inherits”, the economy
as it is when he is elected. As an example, Barack Obama was inaugurated and
handed the housing bubble collapse, along with economic recession, 9.5%
unemployment which would eventually reach 10%, and a bailout package signed by
his predecessor. The great Recession, as it came to be known, brought with it,
housing foreclosures, bankruptcies, even the failure of one of America’s
largest commercial banks. Unemployment remained above 8% well into 2013, when
the slow recovery began. In the interim, Congress had passed, and Obama signed
into law, the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. This
legislation was aimed at reforming and/or limiting those practices which had
either led to or exacerbated the housing bubble collapse and subsequent almost
5-year recession.
By contrast, when
Donald Trump was inaugurated in January 2017, the economy was on a continuous rise
which began in the second Obama term and unemployment was 4.7%. In simplest
terms, Trump inherited a healthy economy, yet he has overseen the fastest
increase in the debt of any president—almost 36% from 2017 to 2020. Trump has
not fulfilled his campaign promise to cut the debt. Instead, he's done the
opposite.
Job growth had
been remarkably consistent since the end of the recession in 2010. The 3.6
million jobs added in the period since Trump took office were roughly
comparable to the 3.9 million added in the previous 19 months under Obama.
Likewise, unemployment steadily declined, and wages rose up at a slow and
fairly constant rate. On a graph of any of these metrics, the period
before Trump took office is virtually indistinguishable from the period since.
I point this out only because Trump
constantly (until COVID-19) trumpeted the “world’s strongest economy” from
2017-2019.
Almost
immediately, Trump pushed for erosion of Dodd -Frank, especially lending
limitations in commercial banks, citing that he had “Friends with ‘nice’
businesses who can’t borrow.” This, by
the way is, and was, false, as at the time there was no lack of available
business funding and no one who had legitimate creds was denied.
To understand
this paradox, understand Trump via this quote: “I’m the king
of debt. I’m great with debt. Nobody knows debt better than me. I’ve made a
fortune by using debt, and if things don’t work out, I renegotiate the debt. I
mean, that’s a smart thing, not a stupid thing.” When asked by Norah O’Donnell
on CBS to explain “How do you renegotiate the debt?” he responded, “You go back
and you say, hey guess what, the economy crashed, I’m going to give you back
half.” Apparently, we are to believe
that China, Japan and the UK as well as our own holders of US government debt
are expected to “take half” and shut up?
Now we can understand why Trump the “tycoon” has been essentially cut
off from borrowing by US commercial banks and, finally, even Deutsche bank. Trump’s
cavalier attitude towards debt may explain his apparent lack of concern for the
deficits he has run in a strong economy.
The World Bank compares countries based on
their total debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio. It considers a country
to be in trouble if that ratio is greater than 77%. Although the Congressional
Budget Office estimated that the U.S. federal debt held by the public would reach
98.2% of GDP, or $20.3 trillion, by the end of 2020, the figure is actually
slightly higher, at essentially 100%. In laymen’s terms, the nation owes as
much as the combined economic output in that same year!
Economic Policy decisions:
Tax Cut: Trump’s tax plan to significantly reduce
business and personal taxes: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) reflecting President
Trump's plan went into effect on Jan. 1, 2018. While many economists warned
that this act would increase the deficit, the Trump planners were apparently
following the line used by other tax cutters, all proven wrong, in the flawed
assumption that tax cuts lead to a dollar for dollar (or more) economic and
federal revenue growth because those “saved” dollars are returned into the
economy at a greater than 1 to 1 ratio as increased spending of saved revenue,
This is actually one of the oldest economic fallacies extant, on a par with
“trickle Down” theory and Supply Side fantasies. In fact, numerous studies show
that only about half of the saved (untaxed) money makes its way back as federal
revenue. Again, in simplest terms, $50 saved in tax can mean a $25 decrease in
the next year’s federal revenue. So far, the Trump tax cut hasn’t decreased
federal revenues to that extent (yet), but its proponents fail to mention that
neither have they increased, as GDP has grown, revenues remain essentially
flat. If supply side theories are relevant as Dr. Laffer, himself, postulated, it
is only (as he also postulated) when the highest marginal rate is over 50%.
When the Trump corporate tax cuts were enacted the rate was just 37%, but apparently
learning nothing from the Reagan cuts and following recession, the Trump tax
plan lurched onward.
"After
eight straight years of slow growth and underperformance, America is ready to
take off," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said when the tax cut
passed two years ago. He was, as usual, lying and Obama shaming because he
failed to mention the effects of the Great Recession. He also was wrong in that
real GDP growth in 2015 was higher than any Trump year before or after
the tax cut. Hampered in part by the president's trade war, the economy
grew only about 2% in 2019. That's below the average growth rate since
2010.
So, in summary,
how has Trump economic policy affected the deficit? Remember, we’re looking
only at those things not COVID-19 related. Considering the Great Recession, it is
unsurprising that Obama had some large deficit years, and Republicans
scathingly chastised him for all of them. By the last 2 years of his
administration and the first of Trump’s (still an Obama budget) the deficit
averaged $807 trillion, a large (too large) number. However, while supervising
the “greatest economy ever”, from 2018 to 2020 (minus COVID-19 impact) Trump
deficits ran half again as high, at $1.22 trillion. This doesn’t factor in the COVID-19
cost, which will make the 2020 deficit $ 4.226 trillion!!!
Simply put,
Trump policies did little or nothing for the US economy except deregulate in some
areas which was largely to satisfy Trump’s cronies and contributors in industry
and finance, and especially Energy.
Trade: Trump’s simplistic view of trade
deficits was a driving force behind his derisive attacks on the Trans-Pacific Partnership,
which, in fact, had supporters and detractors in both parties. What was not
really in question was that TPP would have a strong positive effect on the
economy over time. TPP negotiations were initiated in the Bush 43 years and
completed in the Obama years. While there was some debate regarding if there
would or might be manufacturing decreases in the US as a result, what was
certain was a significant gain for the US in the areas of intellectual property
and drug patent rights, formerly almost ignored by major Asian players. What
Trump has proudly proclaimed as an improvement has resulted in a non-US
participation version of the same treaty, encompassing the other original
parties, minus all the intellectual and drug protection verbiage. Meanwhile
nothing is better, just different. Trump floated the idea of rejoining TPP
briefly, in 2018, but caved to pressure from interest groups.
Trade
Policy: Most high school Economics students understand tariffs far
better than Donald Trump, whose statement that “China will pay the Tariffs!”
should have gotten an immediate gong and a hook from offstage. The importing
nation’s consumers pay tariffs. Always. Period. Amen.
Simple example: a BMW x7 Xdrive 40i costs (in
the USA) $74,900 (the base model!) the tariff portion of that price is about
$1800. Germany doesn’t pay it. The importer (BWM USA) does, and then they add
it back into the price so you, the US purchaser, pay it. Thus, it is, and always has been, whether
tobacco, TV sets, soybeans, cars, cotton, or whatever. At least that’s how it
was when nations still went to war over trade. Now those wars are economic and
we’re losing.
In more recent years the US has had
essentially free trade and few, if any, tariffs for either party with China in
most areas. Trump’s ill- advised tariffs on various Chinese products predictably
resulted in corresponding tariffs levied by China. American farmers,
traditionally huge exporters of soybeans to China were slammed because China
simply found new, tariff free, sources (such as Brazil). It’s childishly
simple: “If you make it harder for your guys to buy our products (as in adding
tariffs to the cost), we’ll retaliate by doing the same. As a result, American farmers, the original
welfare class, got even more farm subsidies as their crops became unsaleable,
as China shopped elsewhere.
In this area alone, Trump’s tariffs have cost
the rest of us tens of billions more in Farm aid (subsidies) than usual in each
of the last two years. To the individual non-farmer this is usually of little
notice, since farm subsidies aren’t generally voted on in Congress, however the
Trump tariffs have also cost the average American household an extra $852
annually over the last two years in increased prices on Chinese
products. Only $852? Multiply those two years ($1704 total per household) by
128.45 million households and, to date, Trump’s ill-advised tariff war has cost
US consumers about $219 billion, not including farm bailouts.
Foreign Relations: Reading former National Security Advisor John Bolton’s book is illuminating in this area, not for his opinions, but for
the factual descriptions of Trump behavior. Bolton, like so many others in the
administration, originally on the Trump Train, finally could stand no more of
Trump’s incompetence, demonstrated almost daily. It essentially a tale of a,
man who knew little or nothing about word affairs yet ignored advisors who do. After
coaxing two such honorable men out of retirement, he largely ignored them both and
finally fired both SecState Rex Tillerson and SecDef Jim Mattis.
Per Bolton’s
eyewitness accounts (seasoned by his previous experience in the Bush 43
administration); whereas the normal procedure for national security briefings
is for the President to listen to advisors present current situations, Trump
did most of the speaking, many times on topics of which he had no
understanding. Along the way he: glossed over a Saudi correspondent’s
assassination, almost certainly at the behest of a Saudi Prince, had a love
affair on paper with the insane North Korean head of state, and characterized
Vladimir Putin as “nice,” refusing to allow any investigation of charges that
Putin sanctioned bounties for dead US soldiers in Afghanistan.
On the other
hand, after charging that Obama made a “terrible deal” and gave Iran billions
of “our” money (it was already theirs, seized/frozen decades earlier) and
blasted the US signing onto an agreement which would have limited Iran’s
ability to produce weapons grade enrichment of Uranium, Trump withdrew us from
said agreement to the great concern of our allies in Europe. In fact, Trump
began a series of reversals of Obama executive orders related to the
environment and other topics, many of which were aimed at lessening regulations
on some of the greatest US polluters.
As a result of
withdrawing from both the Iran agreement and the Paris Accords, related to
reducing greenhouse gasses to combat global warming, our European allies drew
farther away. Stripped of US involvement, Iran has announced intentions to
markedly increase Uranium enrichment, previously limited by agreement.
Both the tariffs discussed earlier and the
Trump attempts to blame China for the current pandemic, which, while starting
there, was already destined to spread world-wide by the time he began shaming
them, further damaged relations with a market critical to world and US trade.
Meanwhile, China and the other original signatories to the TPP (minus, of
course, the US) have forged a new trade agreement which is very like the TPP
except it deletes the two cardinal concessions critical to the USA – intellectual
property protection and drug patent protection. Additionally, these nations
haver extended feelers to the UK and Europe, which if accepted could further
isolate the US in a widening trade limbo. Trump fails to understand this, as he
failed to properly face the facts of Covid-19.
I cannot recall
any time since I’ve been politically aware, (60 years or so) that our relations
and general “sameness of purpose” with Western Europe allies have been at such
a low ebb. This becomes even more depressing, considering the high esteem and political
concert of the Barack Obama era. Having been in the vast majority of western
European nations and in North Africa during that period, I can attest to that
high regard, having actually had locals start conversations to tell me
that.
In a recent interview, former SecState, Rex Tillerson, summed it
up in a statement elegant in both content and brevity: “His (Donald Trump’s) understanding of global
events, his understanding of global history, his understanding of even U.S.
history was really limited. It’s really hard to have a conversation with
someone who doesn’t even understand the concept for why we’re talking about
this.”
Domestic Policy:
Following the
events of January 6th, 2021, it is almost unnecessary to expand on
Trump’s role in the polarizing of America. So, I’ll do it quickly.
Race:
Donald Trump’s “race problem” was inbred by a father who openly discriminated
in housing which he built with Government loans. It was obvious in Trump’s
insistence that persons of color be “cleared” from parts of his Atlantic City
casino when he and the wife du jour were there. It was clear when he said to a
reporter that “Blacks are genetically lazy” (a paraphrase of a longer rant.)
Events in Charlottesville, Va., when he refused to condemn white supremacists
even when one ran his car into a crowd, along with his relationship with Steve
Bannon, left no doubt in a rational mind. He was certainly aware, of yet has failed
to speak out about, the facts related to unarmed black shootings by police at
three times the rate of whites under similar circumstances. Maybe the most
damning comment was his statement during the Housing discrimination trial: “You
know you don’t want to live with ‘them’ either.”
Gender:
While proclaiming his apparent love and
respect for women (just like he has been the “best President” for persons of
color since Lincoln.) He has body-shamed women in public, paid off a porn star
to keep shtum about an affair while his wife was pregnant, and publicly used
his favorite epithet “nasty” (it was his father’s, too) to condemn women who
dare to disagree with him. The rest of Trump’s relationships with women
including his serial wives is in the public record.
The
Military: While bragging
about military pay raises, which he falsely claimed were the “highest ever,”
Trump has denigrated the leaders of all branches of service. He has (per John
Bolton and at least one other who was there) berated the Joint Chiefs of staff en-masse for daring
to urge caution in matters in which he, himself has zero real world experience.
This has included showboating about pulling US forces from Syria against advice
from those who actually understood the situation, and then, when that fuckup became
evident, ordering them back. He has interfered in the Military Justice System
several times, not for justice’s sake but for political reasons. (SEAL
assassin, Eddie Gallagher, Capt. Brett Crozier).
Personal attacks included George W. W Bush:
At least twice since becoming president, according to three
sources with direct knowledge of his views, Trump referred to former president
George H.W. Bush as a “loser” for being shot down by the Japanese as a Navy
pilot in World War II.
On the Joint Chiefs (eyewitness account):
“Trump by now was in
one of his rages. He was so angry that he wasn’t taking many breaths. All
morning, he had been coarse and cavalier, but the next several things he
bellowed went beyond that description. They stunned nearly everyone in the
room, and some vowed that they would never repeat them.
“I wouldn’t go to war with you people,” Trump told the
assembled brass. Addressing the room, the commander in chief barked, “You’re a
bunch of dopes and babies.”
On a visit to France:
“Why should I
go to that cemetery? (US cemetery at Normandy) It’s filled with losers.” In a
separate conversation on the same trip, Trump referred to the more than 1,800
Marines who lost their lives at Belleau Wood as “suckers” for getting killed. …
Later, (on that same trip), he asked aides, “Who were the good guys in this
war?” (An American President who doesn’t know who our WWI allies were?!!)
“I would have
been honored” to serve, Trump has said, “but I think I make up for that right
now. Look, $700 billion I gave last year,
and this year $716 billion. (“He” gave nothing, we all did)) And I think I’m making up for
it rapidly, because we’re rebuilding our military at a level it’s never seen
before.”
The first lie is that he believed his defense
budget was an all-time peacetime high. Accounting for inflation, Obama’s
2010-11 budget of $711.34 billion, in today’s dollars is $855 billion. He lies
because he can. Unbelievably, this man conflates signing a bill authorizing military
spending with personal sacrifice. Likewise,
total force strength is actually lower than any time since 1960, with the
exception of the Marine Corps which has remained relatively constant.
Overall leadership:
While most of what has preceded this portion reflects in
some fashion on leadership, the Corona Virus pandemic has been an almost
constant display of how not to lead a nation.
First, as
admitted to Bob Woodward (preserved on audiotape, at that) and recounted in
Woodward’s book “Rage” we have the real Trump contradicting his public
comments. In public comments, Trump minimized/downplayed the coronavirus threat,
asserting the virus would “go away quickly”, “vanish” when it warmed up, and
compared it to a mild flu, emphasizing the need to reopen the country to try to
get the economy going again.
To Woodward, however: Trump warned about the
risks of the virus in frank and scary terms, calling it “the plague,” acknowledging
it’s deadlier than the flu, and saying it could spread by air. This was
deliberate. As Trump also told Woodward on March 19, “I wanted to always play
it down. I still like playing it down, because I don’t want to create a panic.”
“It goes
through air, Bob. That’s always tougher than the touch. You know, the
touch, you don’t have to touch things, right? But the air, you just breathe the
air, and that’s how it’s passed. (is this the speech of a college
graduate?) And so, that’s a very tricky one, that’s a very delicate one. It’s
also more deadly than your — you know, your, even your strenuous flus. … This
is more deadly. This is five per — you know, this is five percent versus
one percent and less than one percent. You know? (Say Whaat??) So, this
is deadly stuff.” April 13, to Woodward:
“This thing is a killer if it gets you. If you’re the wrong person, you don’t
have a chance. … So this rips you apart. … It is the plague.”
This was definitely not what he was telling America at the
too numerous photo-op briefings where Dr Anthony Fauci and other real medical persons
were shoved aside while Trump ranted about his “ratings” and touted unproven
and, in some cases, unsafe treatments. At times he even gave undeserved
credibility to pillow salesmen and witch doctors, and the gap between Trump’s
actions and good public policy widened to an abyss. What he was saying was:
February 26, at a press conference: “When you have 15 people
[infected by the coronavirus in the US], and the 15 within a couple of days is
going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”
February 27, at a White House meeting: “It’s going to
disappear. One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
March 9, on Twitter: “So last year 37,000 Americans died
from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is
shut down; life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed
cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!” (As of today, there
are 392,000 dead and counting. This is 10 times the flu toll in an average
year, and it ain’t over.)
As avid as
Trump’s acolytes are, if he had personally urged masks, and enforced social
distancing, it would have become a religious obligation to most of them.
Instead, he threw several Governors (Democrats, of course) under the bus for
trying to do what he should have done. While impossible to foresee, it is
reasonable to conclude that maybe 50,000 Americans might still be alive, had
Trump led, vice lied. This is not simply hindsight, since all the signs and
warnings were there, but ignored.
Capable leaders choose good people to do
important tasks. Trump, the master of nepotism, chose son-in-law Jared Kushner
to over-see mask acquisition and, what ensued was a barrage of dead ends and
Kushner associates benefitting from some of them. This tragedy is amplified by
the fact that the Obama transition team had provided a hands-on pandemic
simulation 3 years earlier, in early 2017, for several incoming Trump cabinet
members, including the recently resigned Transportation Secretary, Elaine Chao
(also known as Mrs. Mitch McConnell). McConnell would later, as he has done
until it became politically unattractive to continue doing so, allege that the
Obama administration left no “playbook” for a pandemic. In 2019, the Trump
administration conducted a second pandemic simulation which they dubbed
‘Crimson Contagion.” This run- through was not publicly released during early
part of the Trump COVID-19 response because doing so would have revealed just
how much of a leadership failure was occurring:
The simulation
is so close to the later reality as to be almost indistinguishable. The New York Times reported it thus: “The
outbreak of the respiratory virus began in China and was quickly spread around
the world by air travelers, who ran high fevers. In the United States, it was
first detected in Chicago, and 47 days later, the World Health Organization
declared a pandemic. By then it was too late: 110 million Americans were
expected to become ill, leading to 7.7 million hospitalized and 586,000 dead.”
That scenario, code-named “Crimson Contagion” and imagining an influenza
pandemic, was simulated by the Trump administration’s Department of Health and
Human Services in a series of exercises that ran from last January (2019, 13
months before COVID-19) to August. The simulation’s sobering results —
contained in a draft report dated October 2019 that had not previously been
reported — drove home just how underfunded, underprepared and uncoordinated the
federal government would be for a life-or-death battle with a virus for which
no treatment existed.”
Presented with
this, the Trump administration did, literally, nothing. Meanwhile, Mitch
McConnell’s “non-existent" Obama playbook, used in the simulation, had been further
refined.
Again, while it
is impossible to determine what might have been, it’s certainly arguable that a
concerted effort to prepare the nation might have helped a bit. Imagine if all
states had immediately received the results of the simulation and were urged,
regardless of partisan concerns to prepare on the local level.
Governors
trying to do as the CDC recommended have had to fight the Trumpists who, like
their leader, believed that it was overhyped and really not all that bad. Trump even contradicted his own
administration’s recommendations to push a rosy image of the country’s fight
against Covid-19, demanding that states reopen quickly, before they met his
administration’s recommendations, and getting parts of the public to think
(wrongly) that masking is unhelpful or unnecessary, as his administration
recommended, but failed to mandate, public use of masks. (a recommendation he
largely ignored).
In the final
analysis, Donald Trump’s failure to lead, in the face of overwhelming good
advice to the contrary, is unsurpassed in my 60 years as a follower of US
politics. This, alone, should cement his position as one of the worst
presidents in our history. There never was a Wizard behind the curtain, but
simply an incompetent, and not really very bright, reality television star, who has mastered the “big lie”
school of public relations. The nation
is worse off because of it and far too many of us are dead. If there was a
heaven and, in that heaven, a Bad Presidents Club, Trump would be met at the
door by James Buchanan and Warren Harding, both grateful to no longer be tied
for last.