Another Day Another Lie

           Yesterday (Friday, May 1) the great Orange Bloviator visited the Villages, and apparently about 2000 of the roughly 150 thousand residents showed up to get their daily dose of lies straight from the horse’s you know what. One salient point of the garbage laden diatribe was a vague reference to eliminating income tax on Social Security. Based on the local newspaper account, (you didn’t think I’d actually go, did ya?), the crowd cheered lustily. This was so typically Trump as to beg actual analysis, since we all know how he loves fact checks.

If one remembers, the initiative to tax SS was a Reagan administration proposal and signed into law in 1983 by the Gipper. Fun history fact: contrary to popular Social Media mythology, FDR never, ever, stated that SS would “never be taxed”.

This above claim was a prime example of Trump simply saying something that sounds good to the Maga illiterati but has almost zero substance in reality. So, you know I had to do some research to see just how much eliminating SS taxation would help those on the economic margins and affect the federal revenue stream.     

        Taxing Social Security benefits brings in roughly $85–$90 billion per year, and a low‑income retired couple living only on Social Security never owes federal income tax on those benefits. Income tax on SS represents under 1% of the annual federal revenue, and some of that is directed back into the Social Security Trust Fund, some of which is now actually being used to supplement the shortfall from current worker deductions. The rest is directed to Medicare.  

Here’s a simplified analysis: The most authoritative recent SS distribution breakdown comes from the Congressional Research Service. $50.7 billion went to the Social Security trust funds in 2023 from taxing benefits. $35.0 billion went to the Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) trust fund in 2023 from the same source. For 2023, the most recent full year analysis -Total: $85.7 billion.

        Again, that’s not “general fund” revenue — it goes directly to Social Security and Medicare trust funds. But it is federal revenue, and it’s meaningful: about 3.8% of Social Security’s income and 8.4% of Medicare HI’s income. And again, to spike the MAGA rumor mill, none of that money has been “pillaged” from either trust fund by Congress. No, didn’t happen!

So, would a low‑income retired couple living only on Social Security pay tax on it? Almost certainly not, since Federal law sets “provisional income” thresholds that determine whether any Social Security is taxable:

Married filing jointly: Below $32,000 combined income → 0% of benefits taxable

$32,000–$44,000 → up to 50% taxable, Above $44,000 → up to 85% taxable

The amount taxable or “Provisional Income” is determined by adding Annual Gross Income + tax‑exempt interest + ½ of Social Security benefits.  A couple living only on Social Security has no AGI and no tax‑exempt interest, so their provisional income is simply ½ of their Social Security benefit. For example, a typical two‑beneficiary retired couple might receive around $40,000–$45,000 per year in combined Social Security.

Provisional income = ½ × $40,000 = $20,000, which is well below the $32,000 threshold. Result: 0% of their Social Security is taxable anyway.

Even if their combined benefit were $50,000, provisional income would be $25,000, still below the threshold. And: Seniors 65+ get a higher standard deduction, which further ensures that even if a small portion of benefits becomes “taxable,” actual tax owed is usually zero.

The proposal makes for a great applause line, but it would neither meaningfully help low‑income retirees or reduce funding for Social Security and Medicare. But it would deliver most benefits to higher‑income households with substantial non‑Social‑Security income. In other words, it’s political clickbait masquerading as compassion — a promise that sounds generous but does almost nothing for the people who actually need help.

So? Trump as he typically does, threw out political word salad spam which would affect essentially no one who really needs it, but sounds like he actually cares about them, which he certainly does not.    

                  And the Clown car rolls on!