Wednesday, March 9, 2022

Straight Talk About Gasolline

 

Straight talk about gasoline.

        What follows will be relatively short and sweet. We continue to hear abysmally ignorant and Right-Wing partisan smack talking, blaming President Biden for high fuel prices. Sadly, facts have little impact on these blissfully and aggressively ignorant bumpkins. It’s as if they think that, like Dorothy Gale in Oz, Joe Biden can just click his heels three times and say, “I wish gas was cheaper.” No amount of factual data seems to reach these rubes who want only to genuflect to Trump and bash anyone who isn’t him. So here goes one more exercise in critical thinking.

        In 1929 a gallon of gasoline cost 21 cents per gallon. In 2022 it has hit $4.17. The horror, the horror! In fact, we in the USA have been spoiled by artificially low gas prices for almost one hundred years. If gasoline costs had simply kept pace with the rest of the cost-of-living commodities (based on the actual consumer price index, or CPI) a gallon of regular gasoline today should cost $6.03 per gallon. Fact, not partisan fiction. The CPI in 1929 (pre-crash) was 9.7. The CPI now is 28.87 times as high at 281.15. That means that gas, if it simply followed all other commodities, should be 28.87 times as costly as in 1929. And this isn’t the highest we’ve ever seen, adjusted for CPI, either. That was in 2008 when it was $4.11 (national average). Adjusted for inflation, that 2008 price was the equivalent of $5.46 per gallon. Did you blame Bush 43 for that? If not, you might want to STFU about the current POTUS as a factor in high fuel prices.

         The most dangerous individuals are those who don’t know what they don’t know. If memory serves (and it does) the gasoline price spike of 2008 was an immediate result of the financial crisis triggered by Wall Street under-regulation and malfeasance. Read The Big Short to get the sad story. Although the Bush administration had been very lax in financial market oversight, no one blamed ole George for gas prices.

        Today, the market has lost about one million barrels of daily petroleum-refining capacity compared to since early 2020, when the U.S. was producing about 19 million barrels of refined petroleum a day. Trumpist  bullshit notwithstanding, the US was then importing, in 2019, half a billion barrels of oil annually from the Middle East. In the first two years of the Trump administration imports were actually closer to three quarters of a billion barrels yearly, and only dipped in 2020 because of the COVID pandemic and much lower US consumption. We as a nation in recent modern times have never been fuel self-sufficient.

         This current spike has zero to do with Keystone XL. Zip. Nada. Keystone XL never pumped a drop of oil. Rather, it has a great deal to do with a Russian madman’s insane megalomania. It also has to do with voluntary production slowdowns during the worst of the Covid pandemic and the fact that the Energy industry is still playing catchup.

         “How fast?” is a valid question, but remember that the profits right now are immense for the Energy giants and it is a simplistic supply and demand equation. For the companies which also own the crude production processes, it’s the same oil, extracted at the same cost, refined at the same cost and then sold in a market economy. Shortage creates demand and, when demand exceeds supply, prices are raised. If you truly want a command economy you’ll have to move to a totalitarian state like, oh I don’t know,….Russia?

       

Monday, February 28, 2022

Profiling

 

Profiling

         Arriving at a reasonably accurate analysis of any individual’s personality is daunting at best. We’re not talking about “nice’ or “nasty” or other generalizations, but as true a picture as possible of what’s “inside” based on external indices.

Generally, across the spectrum of Psychological practitioners, the majority  have settled on a similar inventory of traits generally referred to as the Big Five:

They are:

Extroversion: gregariousness, social dominance, enthusiasm, reward-seeking behavior – the outward projection of the inner individual.

Neuroticism: anxiety, emotional instability, depressive tendencies, negative emotions – the inner demons, if you will

Conscientiousness: industriousness, discipline, rule abidance, organization – how the individual accommodates societal expectations

Agreeableness: warmth, care for others, altruism, compassion, modesty – the manifestations of emotional response to the needs and concerns of others

Openness: curiosity, unconventionality, imagination, receptivity to new ideas - perhaps best characterized as receptiveness to ideas requiring adaptation, responsive change and/or critical thinking.

        Many, if not most, of us tend to score near the middle on any given dimension, but some score toward one pole or the other. (Hitler, Robin Williams?). Recent research indicates that higher scores on extroversion are generally associated with greater happiness and broader social connections, higher scores on conscientiousness predict greater success in school and at work, while higher scores on agreeableness are associated with deeper (better?) relationships. By contrast, higher scores on neuroticism are always bad, both for the individual and others, having proved to be a risk factor for unhappiness, dysfunctional relationships, and mental-health problems. From adolescence through midlife, many people tend to become more conscientious and agreeable, and less neurotic, but these changes are typically slight: These five personality traits may be more or less overt with time but are generally stable across an individual’s lifetime.

So where is this headed? To Donald Trump, of course.

        In the first category, Extroversion, he is off the chart, driven by his compulsive need to “put himself out there” as he desperately wants to be seen, masking his inner issues. Remember this is a man, who once described his ideal social interaction as “A great piece of ass.”  He also touted his own “ratings,” while downplaying a pandemic. I defy anyone to identify any individual (who truly knows the man) who fits the description of “friend “for DJT. He has none. Even many of those who echoed his racism and foreign policy goals have abandoned him in disgust. Even the tragically flawed and paranoid Richard Nixon had Bebe Rebozo. Trump has Trump. period.

        As for the second category, neuroticism, his emotional instability was legendary within the Trump Organization years before he even considered public office. His father was more controlled, but just as inflexible, demonstrating his anger by withholding affection instead of childish outbursts. His mother’s punishment response was cold silence. For adults, temper tantrums reflect a lack of ability to deal with disappointment and frustration. But these are not just skills one did not develop. They are missing components in a sense of self.

        Learning the "right" phrases does not fill the hole. That is why giving Donald Trump a script just doesn’t work. As soon as someone asks the ex- President a question he does not like or corrects one of his factual errors, or says “no” to him, he is at risk of becoming the object of a temper tantrum. Having a president, or “re-presidential” wannabee who has temper tantrums is not just self-destructive, it is destructive to all of us.

        During a meeting with Senator Schumer and Speaker Pelosi, which both susequently discussed, there was a prime example of this Presidential short fuse, deteriorating to wild gesticulating and red-faced rage, reminiscent of a child during a temper tantrum. Ms. Pelosi understood that when she said later explained, “I was the Mom.”

        The obverse of this is his desperate need for approval. He pathetically seeks it from those who are at a distance, simply because it is unavailable from those who are in his presence regularly. The MAGA hats across the Arena see what he wants them to see, and it frees and strokes the similar neuroses in them. Those in his inner circle see the real man, tearing classified documents into pieces and yelling at staff in fits of temper. This need for approbation seems to be fulfilled in only microscopic quantities from peers, so he has inflated his own estimates of his abilities, especially the intellectual ones, while refusing to even discuss his inability to get into graduate school, or his lack of any academic honors. Similarly, he has stated his belief that he’d have been “a great military man.” More likely, he’d probably have been “fragged” on his first patrol.

Conscientiousness:

        Trump’s frequent mishandling of classified material, while President and afterward signals his disdain for the rules as they apply to him. This speaks volumes to his general lack of conscientiousness. Similarly, the man who trashed Barack Obama for playing a lot of golf at (usually) local courses, and who promised he’d be “too busy to play golf,” easily eclipsed Obama’s 8-year golf frequency, flying millions of miles at our expense to do so. Another example of this lack of conscience is the fact that, at all his golf clubs, rooms for Secret service were reserved and paid for at year-round, at peak season prices, even if he was there but two weeks annually. The same was true at Mar a Lago. Other examples abound, but you get the drift.

        As for “agreeableness” one almost chokes on the word. Trump has, for his adult life shown essentially zero compassion, sense of fair play or even the ability or desire to process or comprehend at any level, the feelings and needs of others. Oddly, and on the flip side, he feels “hurt” and, of course, angered when gratefulness isn’t effusively forthcoming, even when he’s really done nothing to deserve it. Hurricane victims were simply annoyances who needed money (or paper towels). Puerto Ricans, reeling from Hurricane Maria, weren’t “real” Americans until someone pointed out to him that he shouldn’t say that aloud.

        As for the rest of us: a senior staffer once pointed out that Trump’s gigantic budgetary deficits, incurred during what he constantly bragged was the greatest economy ever, were threatening the nation’s future economic stability. He got a typically Trump response. “We won’t be here.”

          Although it covers most of the five indices, one story limns the man in almost incomparably damning terms. One day, apparently deciding he needed a “family man” photo op, he decided to take younger son (and victim) Eric, to a Yankees game. When he went to Eric’s dorm room to pick him up, Eric stepped into the hallway wearing a Yankees jersey. As reported by a witnessing student, Trump slapped his son’s face and ordered him to go back and put on a suit and tie.

        It should be noted that I have not yet addressed Trump’s incompetence in the area of economics as the results speak for themselves. Begin with a tax cut to kowtow to fellow rich folks - $1.47 trillion in decreased revenue while adding only $600 billion in growth and savings. Add to that, imposing tariffs against the advice of almost every sane economist - costing American companies $46 billion since February 2018, while U.S. exports of goods hit by retaliatory tariffs have fallen sharply, according to an analysis of Commerce Department data. The cost of these tariffs has been borne almost entirely by American households and American firms, not foreign exporters. Although estimates vary, economic analyses suggest that the average American household has paid somewhere from several hundred up to a thousand dollars or more per year thanks to higher consumer prices attributable to the tariffs.

    The lesser-known side of the tariff issue and its impact is the increased farm subsidies paid out by “fiscal conservatives???” to farmers hurt by Trump trade decisions. the Department of Agriculture determined that subsidy payments to farmers ballooned from just over $4 billion in 2017 to more than $20 billion in 2020 – driven largely by programs meant to offset the effects of President Trump's failed trade war. To make another point:  this is a 500% increase in welfare to farmers from those who decry welfare for those in need as “excessive spending”. These decisions stem, to varying degrees, from all the character weaknesses outlined above.

We simply cannot afford Donald Trump or those like him in the White House or even the Congress again. He should remain the sad, lonely, self-loathing, socially isolated man he truly is.

Thursday, February 24, 2022

You Can't Fix Stupid- a History of Vaccination

 

You Can't Fix Stupid- a History of Vaccination


    We have been treated to incredible public displays of ignorance, superstition and downright stupidity over the past several “plague years.”  There are probably several “reasons” for this, other than simply obstinate refusal to believe or do what anyone else tells one to do. By that last, I lump those folks with Flat Earthers, Sasquatch hunters and alien anal probe recipients.

        In the modern, reason number one, and the hardest to grasp, is the initial minimalization of the implications and severity of Covid by the former President of the United States. By minimalizing the possible impact of the plague, even though he had been told differently by competent medical personnel, he took advantage of a horde of true believers who were stupid enough to believe him. He was abetted in this (and still is) by a horde of complicit, and more fanatic if that’s possible, media talking heads, (Rogan, Hannity, Carlson, et al) who continue to stoke the flames of resistance for their own ratings.

        Add to this, a significant number of far-right Evangelical pastors who assured their congregants (some of whom are dead as a result of believing them) that Covid was either a hoax, or a common cold, and/or could be “prayed away”.

        Reason number two (my list, my order) is that some of us have relatively short memories. Today’s absence of the litany of communicable plagues of the past has lulled significant number of Americans into a sort of blissful “It can’t happen here” alternate universe. They are either unmindful of or, more likely, not historically cognizant of what was once a menu of killer communicable diseases, some viral, some bacterial, all deadly and stalking Europe and America less than 250 years ago. I say unmindful or ignorant because it was immunization by vaccination which has made these diseases almost unheard of today. The story of medically induced immunity by vaccination is really the story of Smallpox, first and foremost. A partial account would include:

        Smallpox was sporadically epidemic in much of the world from very early times, especially so where humans were living in close proximity to one another. About the only preventive, if it worked, was self-isolation. This same sort of vague understanding that one could “catch” a disease from another ill individual led to self-imposed isolation, if or when possible, during the several bubonic plague pandemics which swept western Europe. The most deadly, in 1437, killed an estimated 35% of all humans in Europe!   The idea that fleas from an infected rat could bite and kill by transmitting the deadly bacterium, Yersinia pestis, was several centuries away.             

        In 1636, A smallpox epidemic hit Massachusetts, affecting settlers and Native Americans, Among the casualties were 20 settlers from the Mayflower, including their only physician. A year later it happened again, but this time, John Winthrop, governor of the colony of Massachusetts, wrote that “the natives, they are neere all dead of the small Poxe, so as the Lord hathe cleared our title to what we possess.  (In other words,” God killed the Indians so we could take their land”) The sole effective measure against Smallpox in Europe or North America was social distancing, as no one knew what caused it or how to treat it. Note that God got the credit in the description above for killing the Indians.

        However, not every advance in medicine comes from white Northern Europeans.  Several written accounts from the 1500s describe smallpox inoculation as practiced in China and India.  In The Life and Death of Smallpox, (Glynn and Glynn) it is noted that, in the late 1600s, Emperor K'ang Hsi, who had survived smallpox as a child, had his children inoculated. That method involved grinding up smallpox scabs and blowing the matter into the nostrils(!!). Inoculation may also have been practiced by scratching matter from a smallpox sore into the skin. It is difficult to pinpoint when the practice began, as some sources claim dates as early as 200 BCE. 

        The use of the word inoculation in the modern implies injection with a needle. What was practiced for years prior as “inoculation” was properly called “variolation” and involved opening the skin in some manner and introducing something from an infected scab (pus, scrapings, etc.) into the wound. Until “vaccination” the two were used almost interchangeably although technically inoculation could be the introduction of any substance while variolation refers only to smallpox material

        In 1661, Chinese Emperor Fu-lin died of smallpox and his third son became Emperor K’ang. Having already survived a case of smallpox before he became Emperor, he eventually supported inoculation and wrote about it in a letter to his descendants:

        “The method of inoculation having been brought to light during my reign, I had it used upon you, my sons and daughters, and my descendants, and you all passed through the smallpox in the happiest possible manner…. In the beginning, when I had it tested on one or two people, some old women taxed me with extravagance, and spoke very strongly against inoculation.  The courage which I summoned up to insist on its practice has saved the lives and health of millions of men. This is an extremely important thing, of which I am very proud.”  Sound familiar? National mandate, Resistance, scientific proof, acceptance.  

        Meanwhile on England in the 17th century, things weren’t so simple or rational. I only include the following because it shows how superstition and ignorance can lead to ludicrous treatments.  (Drinking one’s urine, Ivermectin, inhaling bleach, prayer anyone?)   

        Thomas Sydenham (1624-1689), a noted English doctor, had observed that the rich seemed to have a higher mortality rate from smallpox than the poor. This led him to conclude that contemporary medical treatments, largely inaccessible to the poor, might be more harmful than helpful in mild smallpox cases. Thomas Dover, a future doctor and a patient of Sydenham, however, documented his treatment at Sydenham’s hands for a more serious case of smallpox. This is Dover’s description: “Whilst I lived in Dr Sydenham’s house, I had myself the Small Pox, and fell ill on the Twelfth Day. In the beginning I “lost” twenty-two Ounces of Blood [from bloodletting!]. He gave me a Vomit (a purgative), but I find by experience purging much better. I went abroad, by his Direction, till I was blind, and then took to my Bed. I had no fire allowed in my Room, my windows were constantly open, my bed-clothes were ordered to be laid no higher than my Waste. He made me take twelve Bottles of Small Beer (low alcohol and infiltered), acidulated with Spirit of Vitriol (diluted sulfuric acid), every twenty-four hours. I had of this Anomalous Kind [of smallpox] to a very great Degree, yet never lost my Senses one Moment.”

        Note that all these treatments would tend to weaken an already compromised patient! It is also noteworthy that neither bacteria or viruses had been discovered, so treatment had to address symptoms, not the cause. That said, observation had shown that the disease was transmissible by contact with another infected patient. This would be repeated with the other great plagues, Bubonic, Cholera, Typhoid, Diphtheria, Rubella. While there were, all too frequently, serious Yellow Fever outbreaks in America, that disease needed “help” to spread. A mosquito becomes infected when it bites a person who has yellow fever in his or her blood. Direct spread of yellow fever from one person to another does not occur, but a mosquito who dines on the blood of an infected individual can carry that infection to its next meal. Ignorance of this means of transmission made Yellow Fever just as much a plague, especially along the Gulf Coast.

        What follows next uses the term “inoculation” but was in effect variolation. This was amplified in danger to recipients and resistance by some, because it used actual smallpox from live cases initially.

        In 1721, Lady Mary Montagu brought the practice of variolation to England, where she had Dr. Charles Maitland variolate her two-year-old daughter. In the 18th century, Europeans began an experiment known as inoculation or variolation to prevent, not cure the smallpox. Lady Montagu defied convention by introducing smallpox inoculation to Western medicine after witnessing it during her travels and stay in the Ottoman Empire (Turkey, today), where her husband had been posted as ambassador.   Her brother had died of smallpox in 1713, and although she, herself, recovered from the disease in 1715, it left her with a disfigured face. While in the Ottoman Empire, she visited the women in their segregated zenanas, a house for Muslims and Hindus, making friends and learning about Turkish customs. There in March of 1717, she witnessed the practice of inoculation against smallpox – variolation – which she called “engrafting” and wrote home about it in a number of letters. Variolation used live smallpox virus in the pus taken from a mild smallpox blister and introduced it into scratched skin of the arm or leg (the most usual spots) of a previously uninfected person to promote immunity to the disease. Consequently, the inoculate would develop a (usually) milder case of smallpox than the one he/she might have contracted.  Note: this was making the patient a little sick to avoid being a lot dead!

        Because of her own experience, Lady Mary was eager to spare her children, so she had her nearly five-year-old son, Edward, inoculated there (Turkey) with the help of Embassy surgeon Charles Maitland. Afterwards, she updated the status of Edward to her husband: "The Boy was engrafted last Tuesday, and is at this time singing and playing, and very impatient for his supper. I pray God my next may give as good an account of him." On her return to London, she publicly promoted the procedure, but encountered a great deal of resistance from the medical establishment, because it was a “folk treatment.”  Again, reasoning need not be applied.

        In April 1721, when a smallpox epidemic struck England, she had her daughter inoculated by Maitland, the same physician who had inoculated her son at the Embassy in Turkey and publicized the event. This was the first such operation done in Britain. She also persuaded the Princess of Wales to test the treatment. In August 1721, seven prisoners at Newgate Prison awaiting execution were offered the chance to undergo variolation instead of execution. They all survived and were released.  Despite this, controversy over smallpox inoculation intensified. However, Caroline, Princess of Wales, was also convinced of its value. The Princess's two daughters Amelia and Caroline were successfully inoculated in April 1722 by French-born surgeon Claudius Amyand. In response to the general fear of inoculation, Lady Mary, under a pseudonym, wrote and published an article describing and advocating in favor of inoculation in September 1722. Later, other royal families soon followed Montagu's act. For instance, in 1768, Catherine the Great of Russia had herself and her son, the future Tsar Paul, inoculated.  Lady Montagu would come under considerable criticism for advocating variolation, a practice that slowly began to spread, as its ability to protect against smallpox became apparent. The results, however, were sometimes fatal (live smallpox viruses remember!) two to three percent of those variolated died of smallpox (in contrast to 20-30% who died after contracting smallpox naturally). What’s more, variolated individuals could pass the disease on to others. But change was near.  

        Benjamin Franklin’s four-year-old son, Francis, died of smallpox on November 21, 1736. Rumors began to circulate claiming that the boy had been inoculated. Franklin published a denial and then advocated inoculation. “In 1736 I lost one of my Sons, a fine Boy of 4 Years old, taken by the Small Pox in the common way. I long regretted that I had not given it to him by Inoculation, which I mention for the Sake of Parents, who omit that Operation on the Supposition that they should never forgive themselves if a Child died under it; my Example showing that the Regret may be the same either way, and that therefore the safer should be chosen.” (more random capitalization).

        A later smallpox epidemic struck Charleston, South Carolina. Of the 441 people who were variolated, almost 4% died, while eighteen percent of people who were naturally infected died. The results encouraged advocates of variolation. Meanwhile, the same epidemic reportedly killed half of the Cherokee Indian population in the vicinity. This still showed that variolation with smallpox serum could be deadly but was a life saver on a percentage basis.

        English physician William Heberden was the first to give a detailed description that distinguished chickenpox from smallpox. He wrote: “These pocks break out on many without any illness or previous sign: in others they are preceded by a little degree of chillness, lassitude, cough, broken sleep, wandering pains, loss of appetite and feverishness for three days… Most of them are of the common size of the smallpox but some harmless. I never saw them confluent nor very numerous. The greatest number which I ever observed was about twelve in the face, and two hundred over the rest of the body. Heberden also noted that those who had previously had chickenpox “were not capable of having it again.” He was redescribing acquired immunity. He was also unknowingly describing a disease cause by a similar but separate and far less lethal virus, that term unknown at the time. 

         Edward Jenner (1749-1823), an English doctor, became interested in the idea that previous illness with a disease called cowpox could protect a person from later becoming ill with smallpox. Cowpox is an uncommon illness in cattle, usually mild, that can be spread from a cow to humans via sores on the cow. During an infection, dairy workers (generally milkmaids) would have pustules on their hands. Sufferers could spread the infection to other parts of the body. We know now that the cowpox virus belongs to the Orthopox family of viruses. Orthopox viruses also include horsepox virus, monkeypox virus and variola viruses, which cause smallpox. Jenner’s breakthrough, which he could not have scientifically articulated, was to guess (correctly) that a virus of a similar kind (family) can produce resistance to other of the same type even though potentially far more deadly.

        Independently, in 1774, Benjamin Jesty, an English farmer and cattle breeder, inoculated his wife and two sons with matter from a cowpox lesion on one of his cows. Having already contracted cowpox, Jesty (correctly, as it happens!) believed himself protected from smallpox infection. When a serious smallpox epidemic hit his Dorset village, he took it upon himself to do what he considered essential to protect his family. His wife and children survived, and the boys, when challenged with smallpox inoculation in 1789, showed no symptoms. As a farmer, not a medical man, Jesty had no interest in systematically testing his methods or publishing his results, and so his finding was largely forgotten. Upon his death, Jesty’s wife had his tombstone inscribed, “the first person (known) who introduced the cow-pox inoculation.” Had he told someone, he might occupy the seat given to Jenner. Conversely, he also might have been ignored as “not a doctor, so irrelevant”

        In 1776, George Washington, commander-in-chief of the Continental Army, based at his headquarters in Morristown, New Jersey, ordered mandatory inoculation for troops if they had not survived a smallpox infection earlier in life—possibly in reaction to the inability of Benedict Arnold’s troops to capture Quebec from Britain the year before, when more than half of the colonial troops had smallpox. Yes, Virginia, mandatory vaccination almost 250 years ago!      

Jenner's Breakthrough

                In 1796, twenty years after the idea first occurred to him, Edward Jenner tested his hypothesis that infection with cowpox could protect a person from smallpox infection. On May 14, 1796, Jenner inoculated eight-year-old James Phipps with matter from a cowpox sore on the hand of milkmaid Sarah Nelmes. Phipps suffered a local skin reaction and felt poorly for several days but made a full recovery. In July 1796, Jenner inoculated Phipps with matter taken from a fresh human smallpox sore, as if he were variolating the boy, in an attempt to challenge the protection from cowpox. Phipps remained healthy. Jenner next demonstrated that cowpox matter transferred in a human chain, from one person to the next, provided protection from smallpox. At the first meeting of the Royal Jennerian Society, Edward Jenner insisted that the origin of the term vaccination, from the Latin for cow (“vacca”), be credited to his friend and fellow physician, Richard Dunning. This was also to distinguish “vaccination” with cowpox virus) from “variolation” (smallpox virus) in the minds of a still skeptical public.

        The United Kingdom Vaccination Act of 1853 made smallpox vaccination mandatory in the first three months of an infant's life. A parent's penalty for not complying was a fine or imprisonment. Two years later, Massachusetts passed the first U.S. law mandating vaccination for schoolchildren.

        As success against smallpox continued, other equally communicable diseases continued ravaging persons in urban or equally close conditions. Measles sickened troops on both sides of the American Civil War. In fact, the Civil War was the last large-scale military conflict fought before the germ theory of disease was developed.  Two-thirds of soldiers who died in that war, 660,000 in all, were killed by uncontrolled infectious diseases. Of these, in the Union Army over 67,000 had measles and more than 4,000 died.”

        In the late 19th century a compulsory smallpox vaccination and revaccination law went into in effect in Germany. Over the next decades, smallpox deaths there dropped rapidly. After the law of 1874 went into effect the annual mortality in Prussia fell so that between 1875 and 1886 the average yearly mortality per 100,000 of population was only 1.91. On the other hand, in Austria, where the lax vaccination and revaccination requirements remained unchanged, the mortality of smallpox during about the same period (1872-1884) increased, varying between 39.28 and 94.79 per 100,000 of population. Smallpox vaccination had proven itself safe and effective well before the turn of the century, and yet….   

        The Anti-Vaccination League of America held its first meeting in New York. Among the assertions made by the speakers at the meeting was the idea that smallpox was spread not by contagion, but by filth. This became a popular, though incorrect, argument of anti-vaccinationists. Though smallpox disease rates dropped throughout the 19th century due to vaccination, suspicion about vaccination remained among some populations. This led to devastating epidemics when the disease reappeared.

        French Canadians were among those whose mistrust of vaccination would end up costing them dearly. In 1885, poor policies regarding hospital patients resulted in an epidemic in Montreal.  For several years there had been no smallpox in the city, and a large, complacent unprotected population grew up among the French-Canadians, many of whom were opposed to vaccination.  The disease spread rapidly and, in nine months, 3,164 persons died in the city of smallpox.

        By the late1800s, and to great extent, due to Louis Pasteur’s brilliance in both theoretical and physical research which led to the germ theory of disease, research was at work on several other previous diseases which had sometimes assumed plague proportions. In Pasteur’s case, this also led to development of the first post-infection vaccination. In March of 1886, he (Pasteur) presented a paper describing results of using his new rabies vaccine in 350 people. He recorded just one fatality and reasoned that this was the result of vaccination begun too late to prevent the disease.     

        About the same time, and into the 1890s, several different researchers were working on the idea of protection against typhoid fever. In Germany, in 1896, Richard Pfeiffer and Wilhelm Kolle demonstrated that inoculation with killed typhoid bacteria resulted in human immunity against typhoid fever, the “killed bacteria” concept proved a major breakthrough as it reduced the danger from vaccination to essentially zero and forwarded understanding of disease vector microbiology by leaps and bounds.

        After a series of polio epidemics in Sweden, Ivar Wickman (1872-1914) published two important findings about polio. First, he suggested that polio was a contagious disease that could be spread from person to person. Second, he recognized that polio could be present in people who did not appear to have a severe form of the disease. These cases are known as abortive cases. Both assumptions would prove correct.

        In 1905 the U.S.  Supreme Court addressed vaccination. In the case of Jacobson v. Massachusetts, The U.S. Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of mandatory smallpox vaccination programs to preserve the public health. (Which should, in my estimation, been recalled in 2021, end of story!)

The beat goes on:

        Measles killed nearly 12,000 people in the United States in 1916, 75% of them younger than five years old. Estimates of the percentage of measles patients who suffer complications from the disease have ranged from 15% to as high as 30%. Serious complications included pneumonia, encephalitis, and corneal ulceration. Also in 1916, health officials announced a polio epidemic centered in Brooklyn, New York. As was typical with polio outbreaks, infections surfaced in the summer months. More than 2000 people died in New York City alone. Across the United States in 1916, polio took the lives of about 6,000 people, leaving thousands more paralyzed. Summer epidemics would come to be common in this era and would lead to widespread closures of pools, amusement parks, and other places where children gathered. This pattern continued into the late 1950s. I recall my mother’s concerns about polio whenever a case was reported locally. Public swimming pools were closed and we stayed home,  

But:

        By this time, many United States schools required smallpox vaccination before children could attend. Some students and their families, however, sought the help of the courts to avoid the requirement. One such case was considered by the U.S. Supreme Court, when Rosalyn Zucht, a student from San Antonio, Texas, was excluded from a public school for failure to present proof of vaccination.  The court dismissed the writ of error that brought the case to them, stating that the constitutional question presented was not substantial in character, and citing previous cases which had determined that a city ordinance was a law of the state—and that it was “within the police power of a state to provide for compulsory vaccination.”

        Despite vaccination’s successes against smallpox, and the short memories of those saved from it, opposition to vaccination continued through the 1920s, particularly against compulsory vaccination. In 1926, a group of health officers visited Georgetown, Delaware, to vaccinate the townspeople. A retired Army lieutenant and a city councilman led an armed mob to force them out, successfully preventing the vaccination attempt. Stupidity remained alive and well.

        In March of 1947, Smallpox appeared for the final time in New York City. Eugene Le Bar, a merchant traveling from Mexico City to Maine with his wife, arrived in the city by bus, bringing the disease with him. Feeling ill, Le Bar went to Bellevue Hospital. He died there, two days later. Le Bar’s death was not immediately attributed to smallpox, but when the disease appeared in two other patients who had been at the contagious disease facility at the same time, the hospital staff notified the health department. Eugene Le Bar’s case of smallpox launched a massive vaccination program in the city. Health commissioner Israel Weinstein personally visited New York City Mayor William O’Dwyer to request $500,000 for the purchase of additional vaccine and to hire additional staff. O’Dwyer held a press conference in which he asked all residents who had not been recently vaccinated to be vaccinated against the disease. In the next month, 80% of the city’s residents were vaccinated—some 6.35 million people. In the end, the effort was judged a success: the total number of smallpox cases reached only 12, and the final death count was limited to two. In the modern era no individual who has been vaccinated in the previous five years for smallpox has died from the disease.

        57,628 polio cases were reported in the United States in 1952, more than 21,000 of them paralytic cases. This epidemic heightened parents’ fears of the disease and focused public awareness on the need for a vaccine. In May of 1953 Doctor and researcher, Jonas Salk, gave his newly developed and experimental vaccine to his family. Salk injected himself, his wife, and their three sons with his experimental poliovirus vaccine. In 1954, a massive polio vaccine trial began in U.S. In all, over 1.3 million children participated in the trial. The trial was a randomized, double-blinded test, meaning that children were randomly assigned to either the control group or the vaccine group. In a press conference at the University of Michigan, Thomas Francis Jr., MD (a scientist with extensive experience with influenza vaccines), and colleagues announced the results of the Salk poliovirus vaccine trial. The vaccine, 90% effective against paralytic polio.

        In 1963, After demonstrating its safety and efficacy, first in monkeys and then humans, John Enders and colleagues declared their measles vaccine capable of preventing infection. Their Edmonston-B strain of measles virus was transformed into a vaccine licensed in the United States in 1963, and nearly 19 million doses would be administered over the next 12 years.

        In 1964, the US saw the tragic result of popular media wading in waters whose depths they couldn’t comprehend. That should resonate as familiar! In that year, a Rubella (aka “German Measles”) outbreak infected millions. This outbreak in the United States initially failed to draw serious attention. A Time magazine article encouraged “rubella parties”, even recommending strategies so that “especially all the little girls get the infection.” Unfortunately, and despite public warnings about keeping infected children away from pregnant women, nearly 50,000 women in vulnerable stages of their pregnancies were infected with rubella during the outbreak, leading to thousands of miscarriages and even more children being born with severe damage. At least 8,000 were born deaf, 3,500 deaf and blind; the total number of congenital rubella syndrome cases reached 20,000. Over the course of the outbreak. the country tallied approximately 12.5 million cases of rubella and more than 2,000 deaths. Resulting medical costs reached the billions.

A slow learning curve:

        Over the period 1989-1991, measles outbreaks sickened a reported 55,622 Americans, killing 123. Of all of the cities that suffered from the outbreaks, Philadelphia was hit hardest: 1,500 children fell ill and 9, most of whom had not been vaccinated, died. Many outbreaks were centered in areas where immunization levels were low. In fact, the CDC reported, "Surveys in areas experiencing outbreaks among preschool-aged children indicated that as few as 50% of children had been vaccinated against measles by their second birthday, and that black and Hispanic children were less likely to be age-appropriately vaccinated than were white children" Of all fatalities, 90% occurred in individuals who had never been vaccinated.

But: On August 20, 1994, the Pan American Health Organization had reported that three years had passed since the last case of wild polio in the Americas, following smallpox as declared dead in the western hemisphere. By this time the validity of widespread immunization was so scientifically and incontrovertibly validated that it seems impossible that any rational individual should dispute it. But wait: What follows is one of the gravest public health disservices in history.

        1n 1998, British researcher Andrew Wakefield, along with 12 co-authors, published a paper in the Lancet claiming evidence of measles virus in the digestive systems of autistic children. In press conferences after the paper was published, Wakefield suggested a relationship between the MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) vaccine and autism. Wakefield then recommended that the combination MMR vaccine be suspended in favor of single-disease vaccinations given separately over time. However, vaccination rates in England dropped in response, from more than 90% to 80% or lower—well below the level required for “herd immunity” to measles. Measles cases, meanwhile, began to rise. While only 56 cases were confirmed in Wales and England in 1998, 1,348 were confirmed by 2008. All these cases are on Wakefield’s head.

        In 2004, it was reported that some of the subjects of Wakefield’s paper had been recruited by a lawyer involved in a lawsuit against vaccine manufacturers; in response to this and numerous other problems with the paper, 10 of the 12 co-authors eventually retracted their concurrence of the interpretation regarding a link between the vaccine and autism. Numerous epidemiological studies performed since have also provided additional evidence that no such link exists. In 2010, Britain’s General Medical Council ruled that Wakefield had engaged in misconduct during the course of conducting and publishing the study. Subsequently, the Lancet formally retracted the paper; in May 2010, Wakefield was banned from practicing medicine in Britain.

        Despite this and the lack of any evidence to support a link between vaccines and autism, some groups remain convinced, without evidence in corroboration, of the allegations first raised by Wakefield in 1998. What follows here is my opinion.

        Autism is a sliding scale of symptoms some of which were simply regarded as “unusual” in prior decades. As “the spectrum” became more defined and unlike other, earlier identified, behavioral differences from what might be called “normal,” (if that term is even meaningful) there were no concrete physical markers which could be definitively linked to it as causative agents. Parents of children with hereditary and identifiable genetic differences which affect behavior are left to deal with that as they can. In the absence of any other markers, it is possible (likely) that many parents of autistic kids want nothing quite so much as an explanation. In the absence of such categorical proof, here comes Mr. (no longer “Doctor”) Wakefield with, “voila,” an explanation. “It’s not your genetics, it’s those damned MMR shots.”

         I doubt you could ever get a Jenny McCarthy to admit this, but sadly, you also couldn’t get her to shut the f**k up about this debunked tripe for a long while. In a recent court decision, parents were awarded compensation for their autistic child even though her disorder is judged as related to a mitochondrial abnormality for which her mom is a carrier. In any case Autism is a terrible burden for the sufferers and their families, but pointing the finger at a preservative (no longer used in any “under 6” vaccines in the US, all of which are lifesavers when compared to the diseases they protect against) in an attempt to find anything to blame, has fed the idle and porous brains of those simply too stubborn, unable to think critically, stupid, or negligent to protect other children from their own (or vice versa). These are probably unmasked and unvaccinated parents.

For 2008, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention received reports of 134 cases of measles in the United States, the most cases in a year since 1996. Of these cases, more than 90% had not been vaccinated.

And so it goes!

Thursday, February 17, 2022

More, and More Dangerous, Lies We’re Told

 

More, and More Dangerous, Lies We’re

 Told

   

Apparently, the new favorite indoor sport of the Hannitys, Trumps and Carlsons, et al, is spinning falsehoods by ignoring context.

In a recent instance, while guesting on “Good Morning America” in early January, CDC director Rochelle Walensky cited an example of Covid vaccines effectiveness. She referenced a study of 1.2 million vaccinated people that found that more than 75% of COVID-19 deaths in the group (vaccinated persons) occurred in individuals who had at least four other illnesses or diseases, known as comorbidities.

Wallensky cited the study as evidence that vaccines were effective. Understand what she said: The study followed a group of 1.2 million, who had received both shots with all vaccines represented. Of the relatively small number of vaccinated individuals who died or experienced severe covid symptoms post vaccination, severe COVID-19-associated outcomes or death were rare among the group — 36 died of COVID-19. The implication is that being vaccinated gave 99.9997 probability of surviving! In the group who died, risk factors included being over 65 years old or having a suppressed immune system. All people who experienced severe disease had at least one risk factor and, twenty-eight of the people who died, or 78%, had at least four.

Obviously, this was problematic for talking heads such as Hannity and Carlson, both of whom have periodically lied about vaccines in several ways, all negative. So, the edited clip which ran on Faux News omitted the context (36 deaths in a 1.2 million sample, and then omitted the further fact that of those thirty-six, three quarters of them had at least four comorbidity factors. Fox and other conservative outlets simply reported that CDC had announced that 75% of all covid deaths were individuals with at least four comorbidity factors. Instead of showing vaccines’ high effectiveness rate, it minimized the importance of vaccination.

This factoid spread with the help of imbeciles like Donald Trump Jr. who tweeted:

Donald Trump Jr. @DonaldJTrumpJr

“75% of “Covid Deaths” were in people with at least four comorbidities according to the CDC. That’s it. That’s the tweet.”

That is also an egregious lie, although Trump Jr. is also too stupid to critically question or analyze much of anything except, “Does Dad like me?

Of course, to the vast unwashed MAGA mass, unaware that the USA now leads the world in covid deaths at over nine hundred thousand, this reads as, “Why get vaccinated if you’re healthy?” This can exacerbate the situation, which is that, believe or not, a higher percentage of Americans are now unvaccinated than the citizens of Brazil, Portugal, Viet Nam, and a host of others. As of today, February 4th, 2022, about one third of US citizens remain unvaccinated.

It isn’t only well-known nay-sayers who use public media in like manner to Joe Rogan, Aaron Rogers, and Marjorie Taylor-Greene. Henry Aaron was vaccinated and nine days later, suffering, as he had for years, from high blood pressure, He died of a stroke at the age of eighty-seven. Multiple “tweets” began, almost immediately, to cite his death as proof that “vaccines are dangerous.”

Appalling, simply appalling. and detrimental to us all.



A bit similar and just as confusing is the Maga group’s apparent and longstanding lack of knowledge about how the government and the economy actually work. I very recently saw a car with a magnetic sticker attached to the driver’s side door which proclaimed that, “Whoever voted for Biden owes me gas money.” This is apparently the lie which just won’t die. The same day, my wife returned from a rehearsal and shaking her head remarked about one of the other vocalists who was rabidly anti-Biden and citing gas prices as her reason. While aware that the woman’s real reason was simply partisan, Emily asked her how she thought the POTUS controlled or was responsible for high gasoline pricing gasoline prices. Her response was, “He killed the Keystone Pipeline.”

Disregarding the real reasons previously discussed at length, why POTUS has nothing to do with gas prices, I will address the myth that won’t die.

First, there is already a Keystone Pipeline system in operation between Hardesty, Alberta and Houston, Texas. The Keystone XL addition was to be a shortcut and much larger leg of the existing system. The system is Canadian and carries Canadian Athabasca Tar Sand to the gulf coast. Canada needs to export this environmental poison pill because they won’t be allowed to refine it in Canada due to huge processing carbon emissions and pollution dangers. “Building more tar sands pipelines will lock Canada into a highly polluting carbon-based economy for decades,” says Adam Scott, a climate and energy program coordinator for Environmental Defence Canada based in Toronto. “We cannot support any pipeline that furthers the ongoing reckless and unchecked expansion of the tar sands,” Scott told DeSmog Canada.

So, what’s the option? Lobby the hell out of the US Congress to get them to press POTUS to sign the permit for a Canadian company to build a larger shortcut to ship heavy, bitumen laden, tar sand through the US. Lobbyists also proclaimed that building the XL would “Provide nearly 119,000 jobs”, but a State Department report instead concluded the project would require fewer than 2,000 two-year construction jobs and that the number of full-time, permanent jobs would hover around thirty-five after construction.

So, what could go wrong? Since it first went into operation in 2010, TC Energy’s original Keystone Pipeline System has leaked more than a dozen times; one incident in North Dakota sent a 60-foot, 21,000-gallon geyser of tar sands oil spewing into the air. Less than two years before the project was finally pulled, the Keystone tar sands pipeline was temporarily shut down after a spill in North Dakota of reportedly more than 383,000 gallons in late October 2019.

When tar sands oil does spill, it’s more difficult to clean up than conventional crude because it immediately sinks to the bottom of the waterway. People and wildlife coming into contact with tar sands oil are exposed to toxic chemicals, and rivers and wetland environments are at particular risk from a spill. (For evidence, note the 2010 tar sands oil spill in Kalamazoo River, Michigan, a disaster that cost Enbridge more than a billion dollars in cleanup fees and took six years to settle in court.)

Keystone XL would have cut diagonally across eastern Montana, central South Dakota, and eastern Nebraska, joining the current path in Northern Kansas. These are agriculturally important and environmentally sensitive areas, including hundreds of rivers, streams, aquifers, and water bodies. One was Nebraska’s Ogallala Aquifer, which provides drinking water for millions as well as 30 percent of America’s irrigation water. A spill would have been devastating to the farms, ranches, and communities that depend on these crucial ecosystems.

It wasn’t just environmentalists who loudly opposed this project, but a broad segment of the residents of the potentially affected area. Additionally, although energy lobbyists on both sides of the border claimed developing tar sands would protect our national energy security and bring U.S. fuel prices down, NRDC and its partners found that the majority of Keystone XL oil would have been sent to markets overseas and could have even led to higher prices at U.S. pumps.

Now that’s a new thing you know. My point for all this is that the vast unwashed red hat brigade will, of course continue to blame Joe Biden for high gas prices, now, based on his cancelling a pipeline which wouldn’t and couldn’t have been completed sooner than 2 years from now anyway.

So, let’s wait and see if they credit him for the over 400,000 new jobs created last quarter. Don’t hold your breath!

Sunday, January 23, 2022

Economics, Political Scheming and Sheer Ignorance

 

                  Economics, Political Scheming and Sheer Ignorance    

                                                        

         In the latest installment of Ron DeSantis’ ongoing attempts to morph into Huey Long: I recently alluded to the 200-man state security response force, answerable to him, which DeSantis wants authorization to create. He said it would be useful, “In case the National Guard were all deployed” (which has not and will not ever happen!) Keep in mind that they would be answerable, unlike the National Guard, only to the governor. We now have another Governor initiative to place his hand on the control of state functions which should function according to law, not the Governor’s dictates. The latest piece of garbage from this miserable idiot is his statement that he wants to create a 50-person state “election security” commission.

        Bear in mind that the state of Florida already has election laws and election security is a significant part of that. However, what De Santis proposes almost conveys the message that there's rampant election fraud in the state of Florida and these guys, on the state’s dime, and under his authority, are needed to protect our election security. Bear in mind that, even without such a commission, other states, especially in the South have created laws or made decisions that do things such as prohibit giving water to people standing in long lines waiting to vote. While the premise for such legislation has not been explained, it seems fairly obvious. Additionally, we have heard the rationales, in places like Georgia, for closing some polling places because they're “too far out in the country” or they're “unnecessary” all of which applies predominantly to persons of color and/or low income, many of whom cannot simply take off work to vote early or take off to vote at all.

        There have been very few valid claims of any attempted election fraud in the state of Florida. In recent charges of election fraud, or I should say illegal voting, county officials have brought such charges, not state officials. Ironically, in The Villages, where I reside, all five people charged with illegal voting were Caucasian Republicans. This looks a lot less like the solution to a problem then an attempted power grab by the governor of the state of Florida who has higher aspirations. As I have said many times before we deserve so much better than this person.

        Sometimes it is unnecessary to unmask a racist by your own efforts because they do it themselves out of their own ignorance. An example of such a lapse of judgment comes from none other than the Senate Minority Leader himself, Mitch McConnell, the senior Senator from Kentucky. Rarely does the "Freudian sheet" slip as far as this. Before a vote to move the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act to the Senate floor failed Wednesday, McConnell was asked by a reporter about concerns among voters of color. Believe it or not, he then said:

        "Well, the concern is misplaced, because if you look at the statistics, African American voters are voting in just as high a percentage as Americans.”  As Americans? Who the hell is he referring to? The last time I looked the United States Constitution, the 15th Amendment erases any racial differentiation for voting. Apparently, in Mr. McConnell’s opinion, African Americans are not only children of a lesser God, but children of different citizenship status as well.

        In other news which makes one shake their head, Eric Trump, who I would characterize as the stupid one but it's a dead heat with his older brother, actually said, “When will someone fight for my dad? Apparently, Eric was out of the country on January 6th when armed supporters of his father invaded the US Capital on his behalf as Trump, Josh Hawley and others egged them on . In the context of the original question, the answer posed was that maybe his supporters have bone spurs and just can't manage the fight.

        Sometimes, even those few people of the Republican persuasion that we think may actually have a conscience and may actually have rational thought processes disappoint us as well. A case in point is Mitt Romney who, although I disagree with his sense of economics, I have always felt was an honorable man. A recent statement of his with which I take issue is not a case of moral integrity but of skewing the facts to fit his own narrative. In statement to reporters on January 16th, Mr. Romney stated that, “Americans are 7% poorer now because of Biden inflation.” So, what's wrong with that? Well, in much the same way that blaming any president for the price of gasoline, which is a market product and subject to shortages and other market pressures, is a fool’s mission, blaming the president for the inflation which is the natural result of such shortages leading to price increases in the market economy so praised by conservatives and John Stossel who is simply a moron, indicates a very poor grasp of economic realities.

        When commodities are in short supply, those that have them charge more for them. Why? Because they can. Period. It is a simple fact of life and an economic reality described by Adam Smith, in 1776, in his classic work on economics, the Wealth of Nations. Inflation and, for that matter, the economy as a whole  is not and never has been (since Andrew Jackson) in the control of the President. If it were that simple, Mitt, there would be no recessions. In fact, this concept is a cornerstone of high school economics classes.

        What makes this statement even more misleading than just simply blaming President Biden is the fact that during the same period of time average wages in the United States have increased by 4.7% which means that income is increased and while not as greatly as inflation rates, inflation will taper off as supply chains level out, but wages will not be decreased accordingly.

Monday, January 3, 2022

Hypocrites and Liars

 

                               Hypocrites and Liars

        Once upon a time, Republicans branded themselves as the party of real, honest, hardworking Americans. A large part of this was a rather derogatory attitude towards people on unemployment who in their opinion weren't trying hard enough to get work. How times have changed.

        Not so long-ago Republicans spoke derogatorily about extended unemployment benefits at a time when the economy was struggling to get back on its feet. They sometimes even used “the S word” (Socialism) and simply called it excessive Democratic pandering to the working class. They said President Biden was “encouraging people to sit at home” rather than work because they were getting extended benefits. So what?

        So, now those same Republicans, in some “red”
states where employment is back up, are extending unemployment benefits to people who have lost (actually chosen to leave) their jobs because they refused to become vaccinated and therefore are unsafe in the workplace.

        States that terminated unemployment benefits for those who were not vaccinated are seeing little difference in the number of people coming back to work. In truth, job numbers were significantly up, and increasing for June, July, August, and September. Red states that discontinued unemployment benefits did not fare any better in getting people back to work than those that continued benefits.

        Unlike the depths of the recession when jobs were scarce, there are now significantly more job openings than people to fill them. However, rather than acting to tide over people who really need help, Republicans prefer to advance their cultish aversion to vaccinations. The Washington Post reported: “Workers who quit or are fired for cause — under which defying company policy would qualify — are generally ineligible for jobless benefits. Regardless of that policy precedent, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, and Tennessee have simply made exceptions for those who won’t submit to the multi-shot coronavirus vaccine regimens." So, after a gain of about six million jobs, employers are desperate to find workers to fill jobs, yet Republicans are subsidizing idle sponging for the irresponsibly unvaccinated.

This is simply bad policy for several reasons:

        First, MAGA practice of encouraging people not to get vaccinated puts complacent and compliant people at risk of serious illness or death. Any governor or state legislator who favors this has forfeited any claim to be “pro-life.”

        Second, forcing taxpayers to subsidize such irresponsible conduct and then adding to increased  health care costs when many wind up in the hospital flies in the face of long held alleged conservative “values” such as personal responsibility and self-sufficiency. Imagine how the Red Hat mob and their Congressional enablers would react if Democrats changed unemployment rules to allow people who quit or refused to follow company rules to get benefits.

        Third, they are sabotaging their states’ economic recoveries. Why would any start-up locate in a state that encourages employees to defy vaccine requirements — and then cost employers money by going on unemployment?

        The very idea of paying people for intentionally being laid off or fired would have made Dwight Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan’s heads explode. It is indicative of a party in which traditionally conservative values and principles such as limited government, work, and capitalism now take a back seat. If the value of work ethic is diminished and economic recovery stunted, well, too damned bad. That’s the cost of identifying with a movement in which oppositional behavior is valued above being socially responsible. In the new Republican party, simply being in opposition to sound medical and economic policy “Trumps” reason and judgement. (See what I did there?) 

 

            So much for the hypocrites, now for some liars”

Let's start with world class prevaricator, Sean Hannity, who said in an interview with the oldest Trump spawn: "If you look pre-COVID, your dad, he got us to energy independence.", Hannity told the younger Trump that during the Dec. 1 episode of "Hannity," his primetime TV show. "We didn’t import a single barrel of oil from Saudi Arabia, the Middle East."  So, what's wrong with that? Simply that the truth is that, in 2019, the United States imported half a billion barrels of oil a day from the Middle East. In the first two years of the Trump administration imports were actually closer to three quarters of a billion barrels a day, and only dipped in 2020 because of the COVID pandemic and lower US consumption. Yes, I know, Sean Hannity is a liar? Surprise, surprise.

Or there's always Tucker Carlson:

In what has been a continuing Carlson effort to diminish the legitimacy of the January 6th committee we have this statement:

“DEA agent Mark Ibrahim was forced from his job and later indicted simply because he was near the Capitol protest on Jan. 6.”  In fact (remember facts?) Ibrahim had already submitted his intent to resign from the DEA weeks before Jan. 6 and was considered a probationary employee on leave from the agency on the day in question. Ibrahim was indicted because he brought a gun with him onto Capitol grounds and then made false statements to federal agents. Carlson also said that Ibrahim did not use his DEA badge to get past guards. However, there is a photo of him doing just that, and in the process of flashing said badge, revealing the Glock he was carrying.

For Carlson’s part, this is simply one lie upon many he has forwarded in attempts to make the January sixth, 2021, insurrection seem like just a group of friends on an outing who took a wrong turn and ended up, armed and dangerous in the US Capital. As regards the loathsome Mr. Carlson, it is worth noting that, when he is fact checked, 71% of said checks are either rated “false” or “pants on fire” which is like false with double secret probation. On the other hand, PolitiFact has found absolutely zero “true” statements in the 21 Carlson diatribes they have investigated this past year.

Finally, just because it is so outrageous. I will end this with a claim from one Dr. Sherry Tenpenny who is, believe it or not, a licensed osteopathic physician who lives and works in Cleveland OH. In a statement before the Ohio State legislature, she actually said the following: “The COVID-19 vaccines make people "magnetized.” They can put a key on their forehead, it sticks. They can put spoons and forks all over them, and they can stick." She is, to no surprise, a rabid anti-vaccine advocate and is the author of “Saying No to Vaccines: A Resource Guide for All Ages.” She also espouses the debunked claim that vaccines cause autism.

 Note”: I am vaccinated and boosted. Dinnerware and keys still simply refuse to adhere to my forehead.

Tuesday, December 28, 2021

My Hometown

 

My Hometown

 

         Recent media attention has been brought to bear on The Villages, where I and about 130,000 others live, because three residents have been identified as having voted illegally. There are several issues I have with the coverage. The Villages, for those who don’t know, is an age 55 plus community in Central Florida northwest of Orlando. The name stems from the original design of small, localized communities, or “villages,” clustered around what has grown to four town centers. Town centers have entertainment venues such as movie houses, restaurants, etc.) The Villages has taken Sumter County Florida from poorest to one of the richest counties in the state. Part of this reflects that fact that we all pay school tax but none of us have kids in school.

         Back to the issue: First off, that (three out of 130,000) represents a whopping .00023 percent of the residents and all three were seasonal and voted both here and in their home state. This is probably the lowest actual statistic for illegal voting to be found in any similar sized population sample. They all did vote Republican, by the way but some reports seemed to stress the party affiliation as if the Villages were entirely Republican, which it is not. Rather the partisan split here is about 55% Red, 45% Blue and, as an aside, several life-long Republicans I personally interact with would have eaten broken glass rather than vote for the ex-President, party notwithstanding.

        Second, and even more egregiously in error, was one article which cited “The hedonistic Villages.” In the opening sentence! While definitions vary. The implication is that much of what all residents do is somehow on or over the borderline of “respectable” behavior. Secondarily, it implies dedication to self-pleasure over all else.

        As an eleven-year resident, I can categorically call bullshit on that implication. Villagers are, as a whole, a health conscious and physically active community with the following indices: More, and more active, churches that any similar sized area in the state. Far more volunteerism via service clubs such as Churches, Rotary and Lions and more than that through individual volunteerism such as mentoring at risk students, meals for homebound individuals, and even outreach programs related to families living off the grid in the Ocala National Forest.

        University of Florida studies over two decades have found The Villages as a demographic to be the healthiest senior population in America. It’s easy to figure out why that is. There are age group specific men’s and women’s softball leagues, numerous yoga, and many other exercise classes at all the regional recreation centers as well as water aerobics and other low impact fitness regimes. On days when I  have an early tee time (we have more holes of golf than anywhere else in the world) I will see, on my way to the course, numerous dogs walking their owners, frequently in twos and threes, runners, joggers, speed walkers and every type of bicycle imaginable from recumbent to two passenger tandems as well as the ubiquitous racing bikes, whose pelotons are out early in groups of 10 to 30 riders. All day at the regional rec centers one hears the sound of pickleball, a lower impact tennis sport as well as regular tennis. There are too many sport and family swimming pools to count. Bocce courts (and leagues) abound as do shuffleboard and petanqe courts.

        Villagers routinely bring home a huge medal count from both Florida and National Senior Games annually.

        So why the “hedonistic” label? In brief, a book and a movie painted the entire population with a brush which bears little or no semblance to the truth. The book, entitled “Leisureville” was written by an individual whose stated viewpoint was that Seniors should remain in their local communities until they move to assisted living or whatever lies in store. Of course, this also means that for many, if not most, an end game of isolation, boredom and, in too many, cases lethargy and physical decline due primarily to inactivity. As a backhanded swipe, since his premise is tragically flawed, he also decided to find several sexually promiscuous residents (one actually, a single male who hung out (not literally, thank you) at a local watering hole and often hooked up with someone. He then, by implication, left the impression that The Villages is little more than a giant swinger’s club. T’ain’t even remotely such.

        Now here’s the rub: the author apparently believes this behavior, not so uncommon to 20 to 30 to 40 something single males in bars across Orlando or any place with a one hundred thousand plus population, is scandalous for fifty-five plus consenting individuals. There are several things wrong here. The man interviewed cited a “ten women for every man” gender distribution, which is actually about a “ten to nine” proportion, so his narrative begins with a lie. If I picked one male slut out of a mixed group of 20 to 40-year-olds in Orlando and extrapolated that to the entire population, I would be laughed out of town.

        Additionally, while, in the first place, what any consenting age adults do is their business, regardless of age, in my 11 years as a resident I have never seen or even heard anecdotal confirmation of any behavior similar to what the author of Leisureville would like the reader to believe is commonplace.

        The film I referred to is a later pseudo-documentary where the filmmaker managed to find four somewhat pathetic individuals who were less than happy with their lives and happened to live in the Villages. Their litanies of woe were not unique and, even more to the point, not even actually related to their living here. Nevertheless, while not as bad or outright fallacious as Leisureville, the film maker’s intent seemed to be to somehow link all these individual’s (4 out of over 100,000, remember!) to their living in the Villages. If that were true, why not move? (Because it isn’t true) _

        It seems to me that the real issue of dealing with the myths surrounding The Villages can best be banished by observing firsthand and that is what Dave Barry (you know, a real author from Florida with published creds?) did. In his recent book “Best State Ever” he recounts a three day stay here while preparing the text. While acknowledging that he had heard the “Leisureville” claims of debauchery, he essentially calls bullshit on it all. In fact, the only even close to negative comment (and it was tongue in cheek) is that line dancers at the town squares even line dance to slow numbers. (it’s true!)  

        So meanwhile, here we are. So, what is there to do? There is some sort of live theatrical and/or musical event essentially every night during the winter months, including a Broadway season package. Here is a snapshot from Monday December 13th. On that night, Emily and I went to a Classic Albums Live presentation of Led Zeppelin IV at the eight hundred seat Savannah Center (superb!). The Studio Theater (a two hundred or so seat “Black Box”) had a play entitled “The Cake” and the Polo Grounds hosted an open-air golf cart drive in concert by Absolute Queen, a really good tribute band from Tampa. Meanwhile at the Sharon Morse theater, a state-of-the-art 1200 seat venue, David Foster and (wife) Kathryn McPhee were in concert. If none of those suited, there were live bands at all three town centers as there are every night from 5 to 9 pm.

        Of course, there numerous daytime things to do, from quilting guilds, discussion groups, clubs of all descriptions, to choral groups, various instrumental groups from brass bands to chamber orchestras (we have a ton of retired symphonic players here) drama clubs, continuing education courses, book clubs, various Trivia groups, and the list goes on.

A I reflect on my grandparents’ senior years, I realize how much has changed regarding the “place” of seniors in society and now that I am one, at age 79, I realize just how important remaining active and engaged is. The Villages actually revolves around that concept. And just for the record, in 11 years I have never been accosted by any roving gangs of sex mad grannies.