Ineptitude and Obfuscation by the Numbers

Ineptitude and Obfuscation by the Numbers

A timeline researched and posted by a friend, with my annotations: In truth, this was (sort of) inspired by A Journal of the Plague Year written by Daniel Defoe, published in March 1722. It is an account of his experiences of the year 1665, during which Bubonic Plague struck London. (The book is far less known that his masterpiece, Robinson Crusoe, which remains second only to the Bible in its number of translations.)

Dec 18th - House Impeaches Trump.

Jan 8th - First CDC COVID warning.

This is the point at which Trump should have mobilized and consulted re: COVID response, but he had a rally to attend the next day, which really demonstrates his greater priorities. NIH was already beginning work on vaccine development, but not at Trump’s direction.

Jan 9th - Trump campaign rally.

Jan 14th - Trump campaign rally.

2 more rallies while the looming potential problem was ignored. That is to say “Trump ignored it”

Jan 16h - House sends impeachment articles to Senate.

Jan 18th - Trump golfs.

Jan 19th - Trump golfs.

Jan 20th - First case of coronavirus in the US, Washington State.

Jan 22nd - "No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine."

Jan 23:  China places Wuhan in quarantine,

Jan 24: First cases reported in Europe, Virus already present in most of Southeast Asia, death toll rising in China, S. Korea

Jan 24th - "It will all work out well."

Jan 28th - Trump campaign rally.

After whistling in the dark and generally ignoring WHO warnings Trump wastes two more days on MAGA rallies, billing cities for security with no intent to repay costs in each instance near the $50,000 level for increased police presence alone. Typical of this is the still outstanding bill for “public safety” of $35,129 for a Trump 2016 campaign stop in Erie. This, of course, ignores the additional taxpayer outlay for a one- hour Air Force One round trip (over $50,000) or housing for Secret Service personnel.

Jan 30th - Trump campaign rally.

Jan 30th - "We have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five. And those people are all recuperating successfully."

Jan 30: (WHO) declares coronavirus a “public health emergency of international concern

Feb 1st - Trump golfs.

Feb 2nd - "We pretty much shut it down coming in from China."

Feb 3^rd - Diamond Princess is quarantined, with what will eventually be 417 confirmed cases.

Feb 5th - Senate votes to acquit. Then takes a five-day weekend.

At this point, with impeachment efforts over, and the President having announced a general, “Hey we got this.” Senator Chuck Schumer, if the President was credible, had no reason for concern. Yet, on 

April 2^nd, Trump sends a letter to Schumer blaming him and impeachment efforts for diverting his (the Senator’s) attention from what Trump had said was a non-existent problem.

 “If you spent less time on your ridiculous impeachment hoax, which went haplessly on forever and ended up going nowhere (except increasing my poll numbers), and instead focused on helping the people of New York, then New York would not have been so completely unprepared for the “invisible enemy.”   

Feb 10th - Trump campaign rally.

Feb 10th - "Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away."

Feb 12th - Dow Jones closes at an all-time high of 29,551.42.

Feb 15th - Trump golfs.

Feb 19th - Trump campaign rally.

Feb 19th - "I think the numbers are going to get progressively better as we go along."

At this point, “the numbers” were getting steadily more concerning and Italy was seeing a disturbing rise in cases which would lead to the quarantine of the entire nation by early March

Feb 20th - Trump campaign rally.

Feb 21st - Trump campaign rally.

It is noteworthy that, while other nations were stressing social distancing and even isolation, the president is gathering crowds for personal reelection aims)

Feb 24th - "The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA… Stock Market starting to look very good to me!"

Feb 25th - "CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus."

Feb 25th - "I think that's a problem that’s going to go away… They have studied it. They know very much. In fact, we’re very close to a vaccine."

No, asshole we’re not “close” let alone “very” close to a vaccine. It was about this time that a major stockholder in the German Pharma firm which was on the frontier of vaccine research reported a Trump phone call attempting to obtain American exclusivity for any vaccine. This has since been denied by the company but confirmed by its principal investor and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. As usual, Trump continues the scattershot use of superlatives which his red capped deplorables have come to expect, know and love.

Feb 26th - "Because of all we’ve done, the risk to the American people remains very low. … When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero. That’s a pretty good job we’ve done." 

(15 days later the “close to zero” was actually over 1000!)

Feb 26th - "We're going very substantially down, not up." Also "This is a flu. This is like a flu"; "Now, you treat this like a flu"; "It's a little like the regular flu that we have flu shots for. And we'll essentially have a flu shot for this in a fairly quick manner."

 This makes one realize that Trump probably uses the terms “preventative” and “treatment” interchangeably. He probably thinks a flu shot will “cure” flu. Not so much. “We” never went down at all from the 15 cases he cited on Feb 26^th. Similarly, we are no closer to a “flu shot” like preventive in the real world, never mind “fairly quick.”   

Feb 27th: "One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear."

No, moron, it won’t.

Feb 28th - "We're ordering a lot of supplies. We're ordering a lot of, uh, elements that frankly we wouldn't be ordering unless it was something like this. But we're ordering a lot of different elements of medical."

Medical what? Why just start now, why not earlier, when the WHO cautioned you?

Feb 28th - Trump campaign rally.

Mar 2nd - "You take a solid flu vaccine, you don't think that could have an impact, or much of an impact, on corona?"

Illustrating yet again his all-encompassing ignorance, it’s too late. Again, I’m not sure if he even understands the difference between a vaccine and a treatment.

Mar 2nd - "A lot of things are happening. A lot of very exciting things are happening and they’re happening very rapidly."

Yeah, just not things related to COVID 19. Can this man complete a literate English sentence without the word “very?”

Mar 4th: "If we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work — some of them go to work, but they get better."\

Mar 5th - "I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work."

Well, Jethro, you surely seemed to imply that yesterday!

Mar 5th - "The United States… has, as of now, only 129 cases… and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!"

Mar 6th - "I think we’re doing a really good job in this country at keeping it down… a tremendous job at keeping it down."

Mar 6th - "There is no testing kit shortage, nor has there ever been."

The below is from the New Yorker of March 24.  On the 6^th when Trump issued the blatant lie above, the situation was even worse.

 “The current trouble is a critical shortage of the physical components needed to carry out tests of any variety. Among these components are so-called viral transport media, which are used to stabilize a specimen as it travels from patient to lab; extraction kits, which isolate viral RNA from specimens once they reach the lab; and the reagents that do the actual work of determining whether the coronavirus that causes covid19 is present in the sample.” (New Yorker, March 6, 2020)

Mar 6th - "Anybody right now, and yesterday, anybody that needs a test gets a test. They’re there. And the tests are beautiful…. the tests are all perfect like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect. Right? This was not as perfect as that but pretty good."

Even in this crisis and a month after the impeachment farce, he can’t help himself: He’s referring to the Ukraine “blackmail” phone calls in a totally unrelated issue, simply to justify previous bad actions. As shown immediately above he was lying about the testing availability. Again, note that in 4 sentences he uses 6 superlatives where none is appropriate.

Mar 6th - "I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it… Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president."

Spare me. He couldn’t do an MBA at all and even his BA was without academic distinction. I guarantee that every doctor had some reaction, but certainly not what Trump cites.

Mar 6th - "I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault."

Huh? What does that even matter. In Trump world it isn’t about people, but “numbers”

Mar 7th - Trump golfs.

Mar 8th - Trump golfs.

Two more days of wasted money and time, although the current value of Trump’s time may be a debit. This is probably the right time to point out that Trump viciously criticized Barack Obama for golfing at various times, none of which remotely approached the severity of the current pandemic. 

Here’s one: “President Obama has a major meeting on the N.Y.C. Ebola outbreak, with people flying in from all over the country, but decided to play golf! 11:54 PM - Oct 23, 2014”

 So he played golf, he then went to the meeting. So? 

Meanwhile in the throes of the worst pandemic since 1918 Spanish flu, Trump himself is on the links.

This elevates hypocrisy to a new level, even for Trump, who also said: “I’m going to be working for you, I’m not going to have time to go play golf.”  Apparently he’s not working for us now?   

Mar 8th - "We have a perfectly coordinated and fine-tuned plan at the White House for our attack on Coronavirus."

Mar 9th - "This blindsided the world."

No, it didn’t. It blindsided China. We (Trump) had plenty of notice but soft-pedaled concern for fear of economic impact.

Mar 9th - "The Fake News Media & their partner, the Democratic Party, is doing everything within its semi-considerable power to inflame the Coronavirus situation."

This despicable comment alone should be grounds for a bitch slapping of epic proportions. Now the, media (except Fox News), the WHO and Democratic national Committee are the bad guys here?

Mar 10th - "It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away."

Mar 13th - [Declared state of emergency].

Mar 13th - "No, I don't take responsibility at all."

We know that, Donald, you never take responsibility for mistakes, but poach the credit where not due (like decrease in cancer stats, for example)

Mar 15th - "This is a very contagious virus. It’s incredible. But it’s something that we have tremendous control over."

2 superlatives, one accurate, the second a blatant lie. Citizens have a great deal of control at this point by social distancing, the government…not so much

Mar 17th - "This is a pandemic," Mr. Trump told reporters. "I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic."

Wow, just wow. Less than a month ago, and a month after the WHO called it a pandemic, Trump was proclaiming that it was “just like the Flu” and "One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear." This is classic Trump, tell a lie and embroider it by claiming to be smarter than those who really are leagues brighter than you.

Mar 18th - "I always treated the Chinese Virus very seriously, and have done a very good job from the beginning"

Mar 18th - "It’s not racist at all. No. Not at all. It comes from China. That’s why. It comes from China. I want to be accurate."

Mar 18th - "No, I’ve always viewed it as serious, there was no difference yesterday from days before. I feel the tone is similar, but some people said it wasn’t."

Racist much? Probably. Always viewed it as serious…? What about: “we have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine." (January 22)

Mar 23rd - Dow Jones closes at 18,591.93.

Mar 25th - 3.3 million Americans file for unemployment.

Mar 30th - Dow Jones closes at 21,917.16.

None of the above 3 entries is Trump’s fault, in all fairness. Of course, if we had acted earlier and listened to the WHO and Dr Fauci…? Of course, Trump’s lack of regard for the WHO is a side effect of his similar disdain for the UN in general.

Apr 1st - "Did you know I was number one on Facebook? I just found out I’m number one on Facebook. I thought that was very nice, for whatever it means." (Trump has 25 million likes; Obama has 55 million for comparison).

Number one on Facebook? So was the “dancing baby”. He’s less popular than a man who’s been out of office for three years! He is so used to the big lie he doesn’t even bother about the truth anymore   

Apr 1st - "I don’t think I would have done any better had I not been impeached."

This is relatively meaningless and gratuitous, like so much of the man. Yet, in the previously shown Schumer letter, he tries to evoke some linkage between a crisis which wasn’t a crisis yet, and which he largely ignored, and New York State’s COVID dilemma

Apr 2nd - 6.6 million Americans file for unemployment.

Apr 2nd - More than 1000 Americans die from coronavirus in a single day. Over 5000 dead total.

Apr 3rd - “The models show hundreds of thousands of people are going to die and you know what I want to do? I want to come way under the model,” Trump said. “The professionals did the models and I was never involved in a model. At least this kind of a model.”

He just can’t help himself. He is apparently referring here to models of the photographic genre.

Typically, even when he’s attempting to make sense, he frequently doesn’t. Here’s a snippet from a conversation he had with another truly repulsive man, Sean Hannity, on March 4:

“Now, this is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this, because a lot of people will have this, and it is very mild... So if, you know, we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work, some of them go to work, but they get better and then, when you do have a death like you had in the state of Washington, like you had one in California, I believe you had one in New York, you know, all of a sudden it seems like 3 or 4 percent, which is a very high number, as opposed to a fraction of 1 percent.”

I guess the “takeaway” from this rambling is that 3 to 4% is a larger number than less than 1%. Wow!   

Finally:

If you still think this guy is, like Ferris Bueller, a “righteous dude,” reflect on a recent press conference where he refused to even let the real expert speak.

A CNN reporter, seeking clarification about a COVID “preventive” being touted by that great man of medicine, Rudy Giuliani, turned to Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (And a real doctor), for his opinion on the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine with a sharper question: “What is the medical evidence?”

Standing at the microphone, Fauci opened his mouth to answer,  but before he could speak, the answer came from Trump, instead. “Do you know how many times he’s answered that question?” (Trump interrupted) “Maybe 15.”

A tight smile, almost a grimace, crossed Fauci’s face. He looked briefly at Trump, then glanced back at the reporter, who was saying to the president, “The question is for the doctor. … He’s your medical expert, correct?”

Fauci’s smile, for just a moment, widened, but…. Trump raised his finger sternly, telling the journalist, “You don’t have to ask the question,” and so Fauci didn’t answer it, and the news conference shuffled right along.

These are no longer really “news” conferences anymore, are they?

To Tell the Truth

        What follows is the verbatim text of the letter sent by Captain Brett Crozier, Commanding Officer of the USS Theodore Roosevelt, which got him fired. I have read and reread it multiple times. It is a textbook example of good management and leadership: Identify the problem, evaluate the efficacy of current options and, if appropriate, propose more optimum solutions requesting such high-level action as necessary to facilitate that end. That’s the management part.

       The leadership part is the obvious concern expressed for the crew under his care and command. That is reflected multiple places in the letter. Captain Crozier has paid the price for another’s malfeasance, that being a media source obtaining the letter and publishing it. That said, reading the letter doesn’t actually do or say anything which should embarrass higher Naval command levels. In fact, the first (and only, to date) comments by the Chief of Naval Operations, the Navy’s senior commissioned officer would seem to affirm concurrence:

        Chief of Naval Operations, Adm. Mike Gilday responded to the increasing numbers of positives late last week by saying the Navy was taking “this threat very seriously” and working to isolate positive cases to halt the spread. He promised to increase the rate of testing and to isolate infected sailors. He stressed that the top two priorities were caring for their sailors and maintaining “mission readiness.”     

       The real issue has been reported elsewhere and elaborated on by me yesterday, but to reprise briefly: Acting SecNav Modly ordered Crozier’s relief. While he claims it as his own decision, White House sources specifically identify the order to do so as coming from the Oval Office, despite public statements to the contrary (nothing new here).  Since his removal from command, Captain Crozier has also tested positive for COVID- 19.  

Here is the letter; judge for yourself.

DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY

USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT (CVN 71)

FPO AP 96632

30 Mar 20

Subj: REQUEST FOR ASSISTANCE IN RESPONSE TO PANDEMIC

 If required the USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT would embark all assigned Sailors, set sail, and be ready to fight and beat any adversary that dares challenge the US or our allies. The virus would certainly have an impact, but in combat we are willing to take certain risks that are not acceptable in peacetime. However, we are not at war, and therefore cannot allow a single sailor to perish as a result of this pandemic unnecessarily. Decisive action is required now in order to comply with CDC and NAVADMIN 083/20 guidance and prevent tragic outcomes.

1. Problem Statement. With the crew embarked, TR is unable to comply with CDC protocols or NAVADMIN 083/20 guidance. Based on CDC guidelines and TR observations, the only effective method to preserve an individual’s health is total isolation for 14+ days in accordance with the NAVADMIN (Individual hotel/barracks rooms with separate heads (ed: "head: is Navy for bathroom)). Due to a Warship’s inherent limitations of space, we are not doing this. The spread of the disease is ongoing and accelerating.

2. Inappropriate Focus on Testing. Testing has no direct influence on the spread of the COVID-l9 virus. It merely confirms the presence of the virus. Due to the close quarters required on a warship and the current number of positive cases, every single Sailor, regardless of rank, on board the TR must be considered (close contact) in accordance with the NAVADMIN.

Testing will only be useful as the ship returns to work after isolation or quarantine to confirm the effectiveness of the quarantine period. Our focus now must be on quarantine and isolation in strict compliance with CDC and NAVADMIN guidance.

The COVID-19 test cannot prove a Sailor does not have the virus; it can only prove that a Sailor does. 

As an illustration, of the first 33 TR Sailors diagnosed with COVID-19, 21% (7 of those 33) infected Sailors were negative on a test, then subsequently presented with COVID-19 infection within 1-3 days post-test.

Based on data since first case, approximately 21% of the Sailors that tested negative and are currently moving into group restricted movement ashore are currently infected, will develop over the next several days, and will proceed to infect the remainder of their shore-based restricted group.

3. Inappropriate Quarantine and Isolation. With the exceptions of a handful of senior officers’ staterooms, none of the berthing onboard a warship is appropriate for quarantine or isolation.

Thousands of (close contact) Sailors require quarantine in accordance with guidance. TR has begun to move personnel off ship into shore-based group restricted movement locations. Of the off ship locations currently available, only one complies with the NAVADMIN guidance. Infected Sailors reside in these off ship locations. Two Sailors have already tested positive in an open bay gymnasium equipped with cots. Although marginally better than a warship, group quarantine sites are not a solution and are not in accordance with current guidance.

In order to stop the spread of the virus, the CDC and the Navy and Marine Corps Public Health Center both recommend individual quarantine. They both recommend against group quarantine.

They recommend limited or no contact with other exposed individuals and no use of the same facilities or items exposed individuals have touched.

NAVADMIN 083/20 echoes this guidance.

The environment most conducive to spread of the disease is the environment the crew of the TR is in right now, both aboard ship and ashore:

a. Large amounts of Sailors in a confined space

b. Open, shared berthing

c. Shared restroom facilities

d. Confined, shared workspaces and computers

e. Shared messing for large numbers

f. Meals cooked food provided by exposed personnel

g. Mandatory watch/operational tasks demanding consistent close contact (food preparation, service cleaning, TFCC watches, unavoidable meetings to plan and execute COVID response actions, etc.)

h. Movement about the ship requires consistent close contact with other exposed individuals (confined passageways, previously touched ladder railings/hatch levers/door knobs etc.)

4. Ineffectiveness of Current Strategy: Based on current limitations (lack of appropriate quarantine and isolation facilities, inability to effectively achieve social distancing), TR has instituted limited measures to slow the spread of the disease. We have moved a small percentage of the crew off ship, increased the frequency of thorough cleaning and attempted some social distancing. The current strategy will only slow the spread. The current plan in execution on TR will not achieve virus eradication on any timeline.

5. Lessons Learned from the Diamond Princess: 

From an epidemiological research article on the infection onboard Diamond Princess (the only comparable situation encountered thus far): (Roklov et a1.) titled “outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship,” estimating the epidemic potential and effectiveness of public health countermeasures:

Cruise ships carry a large number of people in confined spaces with relative homogeneous mixing.

 On 3 February, 2020, an outbreak of COVID-19 on cruise ship Diamond Princess was reported following an index case on board around 21-25 January. By 4 February, public health measures such as removal and isolation of ill passengers and quarantine of non-ill passengers were implemented.

 By 20 February, 619 of 3,700 passengers and crew were tested positive. We estimated that without any interventions within the time period of 21 January to 19 February, 2920 out of the 3700 would have been infected. Isolation and quarantine therefore prevented 2307 cases. We showed that an early evacuation of all passengers on 3 February would have been associated with 76 infected persons. (As opposed to 619)

The final sentence of the abstract:

Conclusions: The cruise ship conditions clearly amplified an already highly transmissible disease. The public health measures prevented more than 2000 additional cases compared to no

interventions. However, evacuating all passengers and crew early on in the outbreak would have prevented many more passengers and crew from infection.

The Diamond Princess was able to more effectively isolate people onboard than TR, due to a much higher percentage of individualized and compartmentalized accommodations onboard for paying customers. Their measures still allowed hundreds of people to become infected. Best-case results, given the current environment, are likely to be much worse.

6. Proposed New Strategy: There are two end states TR could achieve:

a. Maximize war fighting readiness and capacity as quickly as possible. No timeline necessary. We go to war with the force we have and fight sick. We never achieve a COVID-free TR. There will be losses to the virus.

b. Achieve a COVID free TR. Requires strict adherence to CDC guidelines and a methodical approach to achieve a clean ship. This requires immediate and decisive action. It will take time and money.

 As war is not imminent, we recommend pursuing the peace time end state.

TR has two primary goals in order to achieve that end state:

a. Prevent unnecessary deaths, reduce the number of Sailors that contract and eliminate future virus spread.

b. Regain and maximize war fighting readiness and capacity as quickly as possible.

In order to achieve these goals, a clean ship is required. Every Sailor on board must be guaranteed virus-free and the ship environment must be disinfected. One infected Sailor introduced to the ship will spread the virus. Off ship lodging in compliance with CDC and NAVADMIN guidance is required for over 4,000 Sailors to achieve a clean ship and crew.

7. Conclusion. Decisive action is required. Removing the majority of personnel from a deployed US. nuclear aircraft carrier and isolating them for two weeks may seem like an extraordinary measure. A portion of the crew (approximately 10%) would have to stay aboard to run the reactor plant, sanitize the ship, ensure security, and provide for contingency response to emergencies. This is a necessary risk. It will enable the carrier and air wing to get back underway as quickly as possible while ensuring the health and safety of our Sailors. Keeping over 4,000 young men and women on board the TR is an unnecessary risk and breaks faith with those Sailors entrusted to our care.

There are challenges associated with securing individualized lodging for our crew. This will require a political solution but it is the right thing to do. We are not at war. Sailors do not need

to die. If we do not act now, we are failing to properly take care of our most trusted asset, our Sailors.

Request all available resources to find NAVADMIN and CDC compliant quarantine rooms for my entire crew as soon as possible.

B. E. CROZIER

The relief of command which ensued seems to me to be a simple recurrence of a common Donald Trump tactic. If anyone dares to tell the truth when Trump has implied otherwise, in this case trying to minimize the severity of COVID19, a tactic which he has since largely abandoned, they are “disloyal” and must go. The wrong guy got fired here.

There is one other conceivable, but unlikely, scenario which, as a 26-year Navy veteran, I really hope was not the case. The immediate superior to Captain Crozier would have been Commander, US Pacific Fleet which is currently, Adm. John C. Aquilino, who is based in Pearl Harbor. If Capt. Crozier earlier contacted PacFleet and was rebuffed with some sort of “handle it" then he might have felt he had no recourse but to “jump” the chain of command. We’ll probably never know. 

More Body Blows to the Body Politic

The insults to the body politic just keep a’ coming.

        Donald Trump, Jr.  tweeted his adoration of his moron father for a childish and petulant letter sent on White House stationery to Senator Chuck Schumer. The letter reads, in part:

“We have given New York many things, including hospitals, medical centers, medical supplies, record numbers of ventilators, and more. You should have had New York much better prepared than you did, and as Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx said yesterday, New York was very late in its fight against the virus.  As you are aware, the Federal Government is merely a back-up for state governments.  Unfortunately, your state needed far more of a back-up than most others.

If you spent less time on your ridiculous impeachment hoax, which went haplessly on forever and ended up going nowhere (except increasing my poll numbers), and instead focused on helping the people of New York, then New York would not have been so completely unprepared for the “invisible enemy.” No wonder AOC and others are thinking about running against you in the primary. If they did, they would likely win.”

        Of course, son Don Jr. tweeted: words which included: ‘what a great president, no other US president would have written such a letter….etc.’ Trump Jr is right. No other US president has ever been as childish and narcissistic as Trump with the possible exception of Andrew Jackson who, like Trump was marginally literate and vindictive.  

        Even more disconcerting, at least to me,  is the recent summary removal from command of U.S. Navy Captain Brett Crozier, Commanding Officer of USS Theodore Roosevelt. His "sin", and, in truth it may have reached the level of “unadvisable,” was to correctly call attention to the increasing number of CoVid patients on his command. On an aircraft carrier, essentially a village of 5,000 souls when an air wing is attached, such a burgeoning problem is serious and, if unchecked, compromises the mission and even the safe operation of the vessel. Isolation, while desirable, is unfeasible. A further complication factor is that Roosevelt, a nuclear powered carrier, has two very large reactor plants (each 550 MW of power) which require 24/7 operator presence, even when shut down, for 20 years. 
 
       The apparent issue here was that in a lengthy e-mail detailing the problem, a copy or copies reached news media. It is unclear if Crozier “copied” them or someone else redirected them. If he deliberately bypassed the chain of command, and there is no real indication that he did, then he is guilty of a breach of protocol.

       The Trump administration response, having been called out while making efforts to minimize concerns over CoVid is, at best, mean spirited. Here’s the quote from NBC news:

       “Speaking at a news conference Thursday evening, Acting Navy Secretary, Thomas Modly said Crozier was removed from his post because he sent the letter over ‘non-secure unclassified email’ to a "broad array of people" rather than up the chain of command.” (my note. At no time has anyone actually shown that Crozier sent the message to any unauthorized person. The fact that it was an unsecure transmission may have allowed others to disseminate it inappropriately.)

        "I have no doubt in my mind that Captain Crozier did what he thought was in the best interest of the safety and well-being of his crew," Modly said. "Unfortunately, it did the opposite. It unnecessarily (??) raised the alarm of the families of our sailors and Marines with no plans to address those concerns."

        

This actually should read "In peacetime the Captain put the safe operation of his vessel and the welfare of the crew, first." Reading the entire actual message (I have) shows that the precautions issued by the Trump administration for isolation, self-quarantine and social distancing were (are) simply un-practicable on a vessel such as the Roosevelt. Captain Crozier even referred to a recent study of the Diamond Princess fiasco, which makes the same points. Of course he had no plan other than to medivac patients. Neither did anyone else.  

  

        Crozier was asking for a plan (and permission to act) from his bosses! Had he simply pulled into any port and begun offloading 1000 either ill or probably CoVid positive crew members, the outcry would have been epic. In my opinion, asking for guidance in the instance was completely appropriate, the only “sin” being that others outside the chain of command found out about it.

        It is highly likely that Capt. Crozier also feared the possible politically motivated minimization of the seriousness, since other White House rhetoric and response was of that nature. “Scapegoating” Crozier was a real-world possibility, I feel.   

       Under Secretary Modly insisted the that decision was his alone. He praised Crozier but said he had concluded that the captain "allowed the complexity of the challenge of the COVID breakout on the ship to overwhelm his ability to act professionally. The responsibility for this decision rests with me," Modly added. "I expect no congratulations for it. Captain Crozier is an incredible man.”

        So, what’s the issue? Twofold really. The first:  Since the statement by Modly, several White House sources have confirmed, on condition of anonymity, that the firing was directed to Under Secretary Modly by Trump, himself.  My second point is of more concern, since it extends well beyond this one incident.

        Trump has racked up just under 500% more days without Senate confirmed heads of administration departments than Barack Obama had at the same point in first term. Why does it matter? Considering the Trump psyche, there are two salient reasons at least.

The first: Reduce opposition to ill thought actions. By firing cabinet members or other department heads or forcing them to resign, Trump is content to allow second level undersecretaries (confirmed almost automatically by the Senate) to do the job. These folks are likely far less willing to attempt being a voice of reason, never mind rational opposition, if they wish to either keep the current job or more likely be nominated to succeed as Secretary. 

        One may recall that Modly’s predecessor, Richard V. Spencer, was fired by  SecDef Mike Esper  for attempting to “cut a deal” with Trump in the case of Navy SEAL Eddie Gallagher, if Trump wouldn’t interfere in the Military Justice system’s actions in the case. After all the smoke cleared and Spencer had packed up and left, he wrote this in a November 27, 2019, OP Ed in The Washington Post “He (Trump) has very little understanding of what it means to be in the military", referring to Trump's actions in the Gallagher case as a "shocking and unprecedented intervention". So, we have this infighting which results in Modly’s “boss” being terminated and the handwriting is pretty clear: “Suck up to the big boss or lose your job.”

        So what? well, as the stomach turns, the absence of the confirmed department head should stir the President to nominate a replacement, but not so much in the case of Donald Trump. On February 1, 2017, in an interview with Fox News (what else”), he said, “A lot of those jobs, I don’t want to appoint someone because they’re unnecessary to have,” Trump said. “In government, we have too many people.”  (read that as “too many voices which might disagree”)

        Remember, we’re talking here about positions which include the top sub-Cabinet positions that set policies and provide the day-to-day operations for vast government departments. Using these top level (and subject to Senate approval!) positions to achieve reductions in the size of the bureaucracy, as Trump suggests is his rationale, is an unforced error. It’s like trying to reduce overcrowding in schools by firing most of the teachers.

      How dumb is this guy? Several days earlier when asked the same questions his answer was somewhat different. In fact, initially, he tried to blame the slow pace of appointments on Senate Democrats obstructing confirmations, before it was pointed out just how few nominations had been made in the first place. Uh-oh, caught in a lie again.

Be Nice (or begone)

Again, since many can’t read WaPo (I subscribe) here’s an article that’s sort of a follow up to Trump’s characterization of Nancy Pelosi as a “Sick Puppy”. Her sin? Simply echoing the statements of the vast multitude of public health officials (you know, like medical doctors?), that the Trump administration, as, of course, dictatorially governed by Trump, himself (my words not hers) waited too long to take aggressive action on the current Corona virus endemic. This is an absolutely incontrovertible statement yet…!  

So yesterday, between semi-fawning softball questions regarding his “ratings” from A One America News Channel (think Fox, only worse) reporter, Trump called on PBS NewsHour reporter Yamiche Alcindor.

“

Mr. President, I have two questions,” she said. “The first is you’ve said repeatedly that you think that some of the equipment that governors are requesting they don’t actually need. You said New York might not need 30,000 …”

Trump didn’t let her finish. “I didn’t say that,” he said. “You said it on Sean Hannity’s Fox News,” Alcindor responded, accurately.”

(ed:)Yes, he absolutely did say that. Here’s the quote from the on-air transcript: “I have a feeling that a lot of the numbers that are being said in some areas are just bigger than they’re going to be,” he said. “I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You go into major hospitals sometimes, and they’ll have two ventilators. And now, all of a sudden, they’re saying, ‘Can we order 30,000 ventilators?’”

WaPo: So, Trump, after cutting her off in mid question said:

“Come on, come on. Why don’t you people — why don’t you act in a little more positive? It’s always ‘get ya, get ya, get ya.’ And you know what? That’s why nobody trusts the media anymore.”

(ed) So, asking the President what he meant when he said something on Fox News makes the reporter and, by extension, all media, “un trustworthy?”

WaPo: Alcindor, who is a black woman, tried to finish her question, but Trump interrupted again: “Look, let me tell you something. Be nice. Don’t be threatening. Be nice.”

(ed) Understand the context here. In Trump world, asking a legitimate question, if it also questions anything Trump did, will do, or has done, is “threatening?”  The term paranoid comes to mind, followed by narcissistic.

(WaPo again) Trump’s reaction to Alcindor’s question recalled past incidents in which the president has cast black female reporters as “stupid,” “a loser” and “racist.”

On March 13, when Alcindor asked whether the suspension of the White House pandemic office slowed the country’s response to the coronavirus, Trump called it a “nasty question.”  He got personal again Sunday with Alcindor, making what he seemed to consider disparaging comments about her career. “Excuse me,” said the president at one point, “you didn’t hear me, that’s why you used to work for The Times and now you work for somebody else,” a reference to the New York Times and PBS NewsHour. The president didn’t call on Alcindor to ask a second question, even though she had told him she had a follow-up.

But a few minutes later, in a display of professional support, CNN reporter Jeremy Diamond handed the microphone back to the NewsHour journalist so she could ask Trump which public health experts supported his claims that more people would die from the economic impact of social distancing than from coronavirus infections. Trump didn’t (and probably couldn’t) give any names. (End of article)

This is simply puerile and sickening behavior from any chief of state. The fact that anyone believes this man any longer is frightening.  

The Great Bailout Saga

The Great bailout Saga or: Donald Trump is a Lying Liar

  Donald Trump tweet, per WaPo and all other news sources:

“Republicans had a deal until Nancy Pelosi rode into town from her extended vacation. The Democrats want the Virus to win?” Trump tweeted. “They are asking for things that have nothing to do with our great workers or companies. They want Open Borders & Green New Deal. Republicans shouldn’t agree!”

        This is so wrong that, as Nobel Physicist Wolfgang Pauli once described a student submission, “It isn’t even wrong!” In reality, Trumps tweet points out the reverse of the real issues which later, absent Trump’s interference, were hammered out into the massive relief bill passed by Both Houses of Congress. The crux of the partisan differences actually centered on “our great workers or companies,” especially workers and small businesses.  

        On St. Patrick’s Day, in a phone call between Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell, the House Speaker requested that the top four congressional leaders begin negotiating a package rescuing the economy from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. What a concept, huh?  To actually have the four senior Congressional leaders sit down and cooperate? Republicans have derided Democrats for not doing so ever since Democrats, fueled by reaction to earlier Trump malfeasances, took control of the House. Mitch McConnell’s reaction? He told her that he would bargain only with Senate Democrats and their leader, Sen. Chuck Schumer.

         This demonstrates, as well as perhaps any other single factoid, the lengths to which McConnell and his puppet master were willing to go to control relief efforts and structure them to their (Republican) view of what is important in the current crisis. Mrs. Pelosi, third senior elected official in the USA, demurred, and as conditions grew more exigent, however, that turned out not to be the final word on the matter.  Pelosi and McConnell ultimately met face to face the at an all-leaders meeting he had called to outline his bill.  Pelosi showed up with “a laundry list” of what the Senate majority leader and other Republicans viewed (and Trump falsely tweeted) as liberal demands unrelated to the crisis. Make sure you get that, since Trump’s tweet implies that “the Green New Deal and “Open Borders” were part of Republican concerns. Neither was mentioned; Donald Trump is a liar.

        So, what were the sticking points?

         One principal one was that as McConnell structured the bill, a large chunk of money was, like Bush 43’s TARP, aimed at large businesses and Trump himself when questioned as to who would provide oversight as to how it was allocated and where, stated that “I will be that authority” (said the man who still hasn’t divested himself of interest in several failing hotels!).

        Even Senate Small Business Committee chair, Florida Senator, Marco Rubio, objected to the focus and lack of independent oversight of this huge amount of money. Rubio was concerned (justifiably, I would opine) as were Senate and House Democrats, and in fairness some other Senate Republicans as well, that this money would end up channeled to corporate fat cats and not reach small business and their employees who had far fewer “fall back” resources.

        Sen. Rubio said in an interview on March 20: “America’s more than 30 million small businesses — and the 59.9 million individuals they employ — today face the prospect of going bankrupt. They face this threat due to no fault of their own, but because of a global pandemic that takes human lives and grinds productivity to a halt. Congress must set aside our normal procedural and partisan games to act without delay.” “They don’t have a few weeks before they run out of operating cash. They are (often tearfully) laying off workers all over the country, by the minute because they have no choice,” Rubio then tweeted, later Friday. “Small/mid-size business owners are also employees themselves. The trauma this is inflicting on them, their employees and our country is severe. We don’t have the luxury of days to kick around ideas or try to one-up each other. We need to reach agreement and act now.”  

        While, possibly out of fear from Trump’s well-known tendency to “revenge smear” those who disagree, Rubio was addressing the earlier McConnell version and the focus on large corporate interests and minimal oversight.  

        Pelosi and Schumer were also concerned that, in the McConnell version there were no worker protections on the corporate rescue funds. No state and local bailout fund. Not enough spending for hospitals. Why such concern? Looking backward at the only real analogous bailout bill shows why.

        Here’s one example of many:  Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. paid out a total of $18 billion in bonuses in 2008 while receiving a combined total of $45 billion in taxpayer dollars through TARP. Read that again. 40% of tax-payers’ TARP bailout funds lined the pockets of executives whose lack of oversight (or even basic understanding of the nature of the fraud [read The Big Short] in which they were complicit) led to the housing bubble collapse.   Citigroup, as well, one of the biggest recipients of government bailout money, gave employees $5.33 billion in bonuses for 2008. This is precisely what concerned Pelosi, Schumer, Rubio and others.

        “The major advantage that we had is, this is a crisis. And the Republican philosophy of little government, let the private sector do everything, diminish government, just doesn’t work,” Schumer later said in an interview with The Washington Post.

        One Senator, in particular was in the vanguard of those urging expeditious action on a compromise bill even before the real contention began.  Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) third senior Senate Democrat) was concerned, well before the rest of her colleagues, based on what she had witnessed in her home state, where most of the early US coronavirus cases were concentrated. Even during the first several weeks of the year, her expressed concern was that other Senate members weren’t taking this emerging public health crisis seriously. She quickly stopped going to in-person meetings and urged Schumer to hold conference calls instead. She was adamant that her own aides stay off the congressional premises as much as possible.

        On Feb. 26, in a retreat with other Senate Democrats, she delivered a stark and prescient message as national headlines started describing the mysterious outbreak at a nursing home in Kirkland, Wash.: “What’s happening in Washington State is coming to you.” Note that, as she spoke, Trump was still minimizing the whole affair.

                The final structure, syntax and limitations related to the second large “tranche” (borrowing a word from 2008 mortgage bundling scam) of spending, which cleared Congress on March 18, was largely a product of good faith bargaining between Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Speaker Pelosi, even though loathed  by several Senate Republicans over paid family leave provisions. Interestingly enough, Sec Treasury Mnuchin seems to be an even-handed agent of bargaining here, since his immediate superior is far too contentious and of too little real understanding.

        Oddly enough, the federal employees paid family leave issue is, and has been, opposed by such notables as Senators Cruz and  Paul, both currently self-isolating and both continuing to draw their federal paychecks, unlike those other federal employees to whom they would deny that privilege. 46 other Republicans had also voted against an earlier paid family leave proposal.  Pelosi insisted, McConnell yielded. Through this entire process, there was no mention of either “Green New Deal” or anything related to “borders,” in direct controversion of Trump’s derogatory and contentious tweet.

        “What happened was that we kept our eye on what needed to be done, which really fit the national need — much more money for hospitals than they proposed, far more accountability on corporate bailouts than they proposed,” Schumer later said in a WaPo interview. “Money for state and localities, which they had none of. And more stuff for working and unemployed people, and they really, our Republican friends, didn't have much to say.”

        Except for one, that is: After all the hiccups and bloody shirt waving, one last complication arose when one single Republican Representative forced House colleagues to return to D. C. to ensure a quorum, vice a simple voice vote as proposed.  Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) raised procedural objections that required a majority of the House to be physically present to vote. In an interview Massie further stated that his real objection was that the bill would “raise the deficit.”  Analyzing that statement makes me wonder how he regarded the last three consecutive Trump budgets, all of which include massive deficits. (Can you say “Showboat?”)  Once they did return (or at least enough for a quorum), the House passed the legislation by voice vote shortly before 1:30 p.m. Friday and sent it to the president who signed it hours later.

         The legislation had easily passed in the Senate, with 88 yeas and no vote in opposition(!) Senator Patty Murray stood on the edge of the chamber for the vote, unwilling to enter a place that was about to close up for its own deep cleaning. Most senators don’t even know when they will return to vote again. She held her finger up waiting for a clerk to notice her, standing in relative shadow, before finally Senator Schumer pointed at clerks to recognize her. She gave the bill an enthusiastic thumbs up.

        Worthy of note and indicative of the nature if the Liar in Chief, no Democrats were (invited to be) present at the signing of what ended up as a bi-partisan effort to pass this critical legislation. Pay close attention to Trump’s characterizations of the Bill and those Democrats involved. If you are a working American and still support this man, get professional help.

Things in General 3/27/2020

Things in General

        Did I miss the revision to the OED which stipulated that, “From henceforth, the terms “picked out”, “chosen”, or “selected” must be supplanted by “curated”? How friggin’ snotty! Half the persons referenced don’t even know the meaning of the word.

        In like fashion, I really don’t think the flavor of my steak is enhanced by “hand trimming” or my cheeseburger by “hand crafting.”  Similarly, I’ve seen where “hand crafted” and/or “craft brewed” beers are made. Guess what? same stuff, same process, but in smaller quantities and more expensive in many cases. That is all.

        Let’s specify that, for the duration of the Corona virus scare, local merchants must stop using all the “we really care” euphemisms and simply state the obvious purpose of their new, compassionate, commercials: “Please, please, keep buying our stuff.”

        Car vending machines? Really?

       As we see more and more drugs attempting to supplant older but proven therapies, it seems the list of side effects, frequently described in softer faster speech, gets longer and more severe with each new one. One such is Avandia, GlaxoSmithKline’s “new” type two Diabetes drug which is exemplary. There has been an oral Glucose inhibitor (Metformin) available for more than 20 years but, ever anxious for a market share, GlaxoSmithKline pushed for approval of Avandia. The results? Avandia's side effects proved to include heart attack (reported by the FDA) and increased risk of heart failure. Bladder failure was another.  In 2010, Avandia was placed under strict restrictions owing to reports of tens of thousands of people who were inflicted with stroke, heart diseases and heart failure.

        However, by a 30 to 1 vote of an FDA panel, the restriction was removed by in 2013. (lobbyist influence, anyone?) In May 2010, GlaxoSmithKline settled over 700 lawsuits with nearly $60 million out of court in relation to claims brought against it. In July, it also settled over 10,000 lawsuits with over $460 million.

        Any guesses as to how GlaxoSmithKline will recoup these annoying financial side effects? How about 2019 profits (not sales, but net profits!!), of $6.71 BILLION? This was driven by their new Shingles vaccine, Shingrix. Not to worry, though, Shingrix won’t kill you, but it can cause: muscle pain, headache, shivering, fever, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, dizziness, or, if you hit the jackpot, angioedema, swelling of the tongue, mouth, or throat, trouble breathing and/or low blood pressure.  NIH funding contributed to published research associated with every one of the 210 new drugs approved by the Food and Drug Administration from 2010–2016. As the taxpayers who fund the NIH, when should we expect our profit sharing checks?

       Apparently, Donald Trump isn’t he only moron using unproven medications to combat/ward off Covid. In Iran, a majority Shiite Muslim nation where, as a matter of religious doctrine, drinking alcohol is forbidden, insanity has, apparently, prevailed. I only dwell on this because it is a result of bad science and ignorance reminiscent of creationism.

       Nearly 300 Iranians have been officially reported as deceased and over three times as many are severely ill due to ingesting methanol because they wrongly thought it would shield them from catching coronavirus. This was reported by Iranian news outlets and reprinted in the WaPo today (Friday, 3/27).

        Numerous Iranian social media users have been touting and sharing false claims that a British schoolteacher and several others cured themselves of the virus by ingesting whiskey and honey, according to an Associated Press report.  Others suggested that drinking high-proof alcohol kills the virus. In fact, the proper Ethanol high proof alcohol might make one care less about the virus, but methanol, or wood alcohol as it is also known, while differing from fine Scotch by only one Carbon and two Hydrogen atoms (and some delicately nuanced flavorings), is far more toxic.

       The deaths are an exemplary result of a spate of fake remedies spread across social media, since many Iranians are suspicious of the government’s efforts to combat the spread of the virus that they initially downplayed. Sound familiar? One Iranian actual medical doctor, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the AP that the death toll from drinking methanol was actually more like 500, with 2,850 people made ill. With more than 29,000 confirmed cases of the virus and more than 2,000 related deaths, Iran has the largest death toll in the Middle East.

        Lest you think only Trump senior is a doofus, read this:

        Donald Trump Jr., promoted a story in (the ultra-conservative) Breitbart News with the headline “WHO Spread False Chinese Government Propaganda: Coronavirus Not Contagious Among Humans.” Don’t tell Iran, Italy, Spain, France or anyone else with half a brain.

That's about all I can stomach this morning.