MAGA?

Causative factors:

At times I find myself wondering what those of the great unwashed who wear the hats emblazoned with the letters above are envisioning when they wear it. I have concluded that several factors are at work in the recesses of their minds. I also believe that many, if not most, are cognitively unaware of all the factors shaping their angst and anger.

First, let’s think about what the acronym might mean, and what it means to the Trumpists and why. I believe there is a factor operating in most of these cases of which the individuals are perhaps unaware. Essentially all organizational leadership studies ever conducted in the 20th century reveal that, of those things which happen in organizations great and small, the one constant is fear of and resistance to change. We've all seen it. In the Navy, there was the uncertainty, every three years or so, of a new Commanding Officer. “How will he be different from the guy we’re used to?” “How will my responsibilities change?” “How will the command climate change?” The military, however, plans for and conducts changes such as this so frequently that it becomes the norm and not the exception. These changes are also abrupt, in that “the old guy was here, and now he’s gone.” The individual was assigned to one command, and then he received orders to another, perhaps across the continent. This “norm,” for military families is much like the “New” model for younger members of the workforce, especially young professionals.

The millennial generation should expect, if current projections are correct,  to change jobs 4 or 5 times during their working life. They should also anticipate that they will be required to accept far more responsibility for their own retirement finances than their parents’ and grandparents’ generations. In summary, the post WWII generation (boomers), and their immediate successors have witnessed, and are witnessing, changes in the way work and post work life happens.

The days of “work for XYZ Inc. for 35 years and retire with guaranteed pension and premium healthcare,” while generally guaranteed for Boomers, are slipping away, as healthcare costs spiral and “guaranteed benefit” retirement plans (work so many years, multiply that by a percentage your “high five” wage earning years and get that amount each year for life) are being replaced by “guaranteed contribution” plans, wherein the employer contributes a specific amount to a private sector IRA and so does the employee, who manages (or can manage) that account. In these cases, when the employee retires, the employer’s responsibility is finished. This is a change, perhaps not overtly seen as a stressor by the individual, but real, nonetheless.

Likewise, societal changes, happening gradually, while in some cases inconsequential, but in more cases radical, are stress inducing to the post war and later generations who have resisted social change, perhaps not because they have even made any rational appraisal of consequence, but because they are products of nurture and parentally inculcated bias. The Civil Rights movement is exemplary. For many Americans, there was no immediate physical impact on their lives or the quality of life, yet they, in many (too many) cases resisted movements toward social equality for all Americans simply they’d been raised to do so by that same boomer generation, again resisting change, even when in much of the nation it was of little consequence to them.

Likewise, improving and levelling the playing field for women in society met much the same intransigence from many, whose ingrained ideas of the “place” of women was similar to their concept of the “place” of Black and Brown people – second class and subservient. This gender driven bias, while somewhat less prevalent, was frequently also less overt.

The LGBTQ Rights movement, like the Women’s movement, found also, in many cases opposition from those on the “Religious Right” who were, to a great extent, cloaking their prejudices in the veil of religion, and in the case of Christianity. grossly perverting the teachings of their own inceptor, real or symbolic, Jesus.

Again, all these changes were additive, but some, such as accepting changes to the nature of their financial futures, were a necessity of work life. Social changes were, oddly enough, more frustrating for many folks, even though these changes, in most cases, had zero physical effect on many of those most vocal in opposing them, which is one of the more perplexing and troubling aspects of the current mindset of the MAGA folks. For too many of those White male MAGA cap wearers it way well be the realization that their presumptive “head of the table” seat based on ethnicity and gender as a White Male in the United States is no longer guaranteed and, rather, more and more ability related.

Yet another change in America over the span of post WWII to today, is in the very nature of work itself. The era when American assembly lines churned out cars as fast as the rest of the world could buy them died and that demise was, to some extent, semi-suicidal. While it is true that “foreign cars” (remember when we called them that?) were cheaper and more economical, the Big Three (GM, Ford, Chrysler) continued producing gas guzzlers long after Americans had begun voting with their wallets for imports. "Made in Japan", in the 1950s a derisive term connoting poor quality and cheap manufacture, by the 1980s (think “Honda Accord”) had become a selling point, while “Chevy Vega” had become vomit inducing. The ubiquitous vintage Chevy in Latin America gradually yielded to Toyotas, Hondas, etc. Manufacturing, likewise, began to be shipped off- shore or southward, not because of any “government conspiracy”, but because corporate America chose to do it to remain competitive by using cheap labor elsewhere. This, of course, hit displaced American auto maker employees like a tsunami. More change, more angst.

The change described above in, but one US industry, was not confined but general. As the incorporation of rare earths in an ever-increasing array of military and consumer electronics applications mushroomed, so did the awareness than most of these essential ores were located outside our continental boundaries, in such places as Brazil and China. Likewise, as the technical nature of the requirements for higher paying jobs in manufacturing and high-tech industries broadened, some American workers found themselves simply unable to compete. Tragically, many also found themselves complacently unwilling to retrain. Sadly, this has resulted in several “fall back” positions for these folks who would rather blame than adjust

The first is to blame immigrants, especially undocumented (illegal) ones for “taking American jobs” which may well be the greatest lie since “the check’s in the mail!” In fact, many immigrants, happy to work at any job which gives then a chance to be happy and raise a family, are working jobs for which Americans don’t, or won’t, even apply for, such as farm laborers, hotel maids, roofing crews, etc. The myth of lost “American jobs” is simply that. The second lie these folks tell themselves is that there aren’t any manufacturing jobs available. The real issue is that the “new” job market requires skill sets beyond those of many Americans, even recent college graduates, many of whom have massive student load debt amassed while pursuing a degree field for which there may be relatively few job openings. In 2017, this resulted in almost 200,000 foreign graduates of STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) courses from US colleges being granted work visas to fill job openings in American businesses. An additional 85,000 “non-STEM” grads were hired. There are jobs. There are also qualification and training requirements.

Meanwhile, in desperately poor towns in Kentucky, many residents blame the “Gummint” for their woes, refusing to learn any other new employable skill or relocate while bemoaning the loss of jobs in the coal industry, apparently unconcerned that if they work the mines, they are likely to live about 14 years less than the average non-miner (yeah, I looked it up). Of course, the Trump mantra of “Clean beautiful Coal” resonates with these provincial bumpkins, even though their vote will do nothing to assuage the ravishment of Black Lung.

Added to the negative (for some) dither of change was, beginning in the early 1970s, the initiation of ARPANET, the eventually exponential jump in instant information availability. Since 1995 the Internet has tremendously impacted culture and commerce, including the rise of near instant communication by email, instant messaging, telephony (Voice over Internet Protocol), two-way interactive video calls, and the World Wide Web with its discussion forums, blogs, social networking, and online shopping sites. Increasing amounts of data are transmitted at higher and higher speeds over fiber optic networks operating at 1Gbit/sec (lots of data in little time).

While this immediacy of information had/has good intentions, it also contributes to the “change” stressors of those who can now see situations and actions as they unfold, which in years past might have been page three news items the next day. While many of us can process this for what it is – that things which are today, really not much different in frequency, or even less so, than they ever were, they are, nonetheless, perceived by too  many others as escalations. Examples might include child abuse, bank robberies, angry persons with guns, incidence of illegal immigration, etc.

Although the “I fear/hate change” portion of our nation would be distressed by what they believe to be increases in violent crime, the truth is that, after World War II, crime rates did increase in the United States, peaking from the 1970s to the early 1990s. Violent crime nearly quadrupled between 1960 and its peak in 1991. Oddly enough, (or perhaps not), 1991 is also generally considered the first year of civilian/ “browse at home” access to what we today consider “the Internet.” Although property crime (theft/arson, etc.) more than doubled over the same period(70s to 90s), since 1991, contrary to common misconception, crime in the United States has declined steadily. It should be obvious what now fuels that misconception. I’d be willing to bet and give odds that most wearers of the MAGA ball cap would be absolutely sure that crime was higher than 30 years ago, and they’d be wrong. In fact, both rape and murder in the US (and rape is far more often reported “now” than “then”) are at levels about half (yes half!) as high as 1990. Ah, but the Internet!

In summarizing, while real change stressors, such as health care, job loss or financial uncertainties are undeniable, they have been with us for much of the last 100 years. Social change stressors, amped up grossly by instant information, however, are relatively new, vastly different and more immediate in impact and, for too many boomers and their progeny, far more difficult to assimilate. One last example: For those of us old enough to remember, try to imagine the Cuban missile crisis (1962) or events in Selma Alabama (1965) through the lens of the Internet today.


Catalyst:

This is a much shorter section, since it’s a much more direct and obvious answer. Although typically, Democratic administrations have been labeled “Tax and Spend” by most Republicans, incumbents and candidates, over the past several decades, the federal deficit has shown a somewhat different snapshot of federal finances. Because I’ve discussed this before elsewhere, I’ll try to be brief here. The strongest US economies of the last 70 years have been in periods of higher marginal tax rates, even as high as 91% in the Eisenhower administration. This is only relevant in that it shows the predisposition of some to “fall for” the oft repeated Republican mantra that cutting taxes will stimulate the economy, which they love to refer to by the Econ 101, term “The Trickle Down “Theory.” In practice, it hasn’t worked for any Republican in our lifetime. Eisenhower had high marginal tax rates and a booming post war economy, Bush 41, after saying “No new taxes,” signed a tax increase, Clinton actually had us on the way to decreasing the monumental national debt. “Supply Siders, Ronald Reagan and Bush 43 both cut taxes on the rich; both grew record deficits, neither in time of recession. I know, so what where does this get us to MAGA? Patience grasshopper.

 At the end of the Bush 43 administration’s second term, the Commercial Banking industry’s manipulation of questionable mortgages, packaged as if they had real value and grotesquely overvalued and overrated finally collapsed of its own weight, with a resultant $426 billion bailout (TARP) signed by Bush 43 and handed to the newly elected Barack Obama. The fallout from the housing bubble collapse was the result of an under-regulated and largely misunderstood financial sector, running amok with relatively little comprehension by those at the top of what their companies were doing. The result was job loss, foreclosed mortgages, unemployment, and a crisis of survivability in the Auto, Insurance and Commercial Finance sectors.

Enter Barack Obama, already eliciting from those mentioned earlier who had race “issues” barrages of insults without basis. He now also became the reason for increased deficits due to extending unemployment and propping up programs which were essential to survival for those poor among us, regardless of race. Along the way we heard “Obama phone” (actually a Bush 43 initiative) and a host of scathing and similar insults dredged up from the angst of job loss, financial crisis, and reigniting the racial hostilities some had stewed over since the civil rights era. Lost in all this for too many of these haters was the fact that, by 2013, all TARP funds had been paid back and actually generated an $11 billion return on the original outlay. In essence, TARP was a 2.5% interest loan. Not great, but not a giveaway, either. At the end of the Obama administration, the economy was back to the highest point of the Bush 43 years and climbing, as it still was when Trump was sworn in, the deficit down.

Then came the election year of 2016. Donald Trump was a narcissistic political opportunist and self- promoter who glossed over his 5 bankruptcies, and as a TV reality show host, had a media image inconsistent with his own realities. The one thing he was good at, however was tapping into all these afore-mentioned simmering resentments of some Americans, many of whom in their ignorance and in spite of all indicators to the contrary and a rapidly improving economy, blamed Barack Obama for their miseries of 2008-2011. By inference, and sometimes by direct actions, Trump fed their racism, anti-female biases, xenophobia and even their disdain for the handicapped. Although he had wanted his then-mistress to abort their first child, Tiffany, he now became pro-life, pandering to the Evangelicals. His “Make America Great Again” became the watchword of many who had no real idea of what, if anything, it meant to him, because of what image it conjured up for them.

To Trump, “great” apparently means ready credit for his wealthy supporters, a far less regulated financial establishment, little or no concern for the environment, undoing essentially all Obama executive orders, watching TV until 11 am and playing 3 times as much golf as Obama, whose golf playing he criticized as excessive. Even more to the point, it means fanning the flames of all those financial and social change stressors in order to keep his core voters focused on lesser things than his destruction of foreign relations, the environment, healthcare availability, Government day to day operation, and general ineptitude. All this while never actually defining “Great Again,” because he knows full well, he cannot, because, while “great” is attainable, it must be a different kind of “great.”

The “Great Again” of Trump supporter fantasy isn’t coming back. We no longer have all the raw materials we need within our boundaries. We are no longer alone as the economy which rules world markets. Women and Minorities will not be shoved back into White Male determined slots and immigrants will continue filling jobs, since some Americans are either “too good” or too under-educated to do them.

The “new great” would be one where all citizens have access to decent healthcare. It would be one where a university degree doesn’t leave one with the equivalent of a home mortgage in student loan debt. It would be one where children grew up with the idea that a reasonable person treats each individual as just that, rather than by parentally inculcated stereotype, and where parents encourage education for the workplace, be that post-secondary or technical. It would be a “great” where US foreign relations were cordial where appropriate, and firm but civil where differences exist. It would be a “great” where we openly acknowledge a changing world and economic reality and do what can be done to remain ahead of it, vice fostering the belief that we can “go home again.

Like it or not, Trump supporters, Richie and The Fonz aren’t coming back to Al’s Diner (torn down to make way for an Apple Store), The Dodgers are staying in LA, and your Pat Boone 8 track tapes are obsolete.