Monday, April 13, 2020

A Timeline, Critique and Comparison


A timeline of stalling and failure to lead:
 Where sources are referred to, they are WaPo reporters Yasmeen Abutaleb, Josh Dawsey, Ellen Nakashima, and Greg Miller, who have dogged this story from the get-go, unless otherwise specified. Timeline data is taken from the Washington Post.

·       Jan. 3: The Trump administration received its first formal notification of the outbreak in China. according to journalists Yasmeen Abutaleb, Josh Dawsey, Ellen Nakashima, and Greg Miller. “Within days, U.S. spy agencies were signaling the seriousness of the threat to Trump by including a warning about the coronavirus — the first of many — in the President’s Daily Brief,” they write. Advisers in the White House, however, struggled to get Trump to take the threat seriously.

·       Jan. 18: The secretary of Health and Human Services, Alex Azar, was finally able to speak with Trump, who was at Mar-a-Lago, and provide him with his first briefing about the virus. But the conversation was quickly derailed: “When he reached Trump by phone, the president interjected to ask about vaping and when flavored vaping products would be back on the market, the senior administration officials said,”

·       Jan. 21: The first confirmed U.S. case is announced in Washington state.

·       Jan. 22: During an interview, Trump told CNBC he was “not at all” worried about a potential pandemic: “No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China … It’s going to be just fine.”
·        
·       Jan. 29: The top White House adviser on trade and China hawk, Peter Navarro, issued a memo starkly warning “that the coronavirus crisis could cost the United States trillions of dollars and put millions of Americans at risk of illness or death,” the New York Times's Maggie Haberman reported. Trump did create the coronavirus task force that same day, but he was still publicly downplaying the virus.
·        
·       Jan 30: Despite recommendations from his top health advisers against doing so, “Mr. Trump would approve the limits on travel from China the next day, though it would be weeks before he began taking more aggressive steps to head off spread of the virus,” per Haberman.

·       Feb. 5: Azar (Health and Human services) submitted an emergency request for over $4 billion to the White House budget officials after HHS leaders sent over two letters asking the office “to use its transfer authority to shift $136 million of department funds into pools that could be tapped for combating the coronavirus,” “Azar and his aides also began raising the need for a multibillion-dollar supplemental budget request to send to Congress.” A shouting match ensued in the Situation Room that day in response to Azar's ask, our colleagues report: “A deputy in the budget office accused Azar of preemptively lobbying Congress for a gigantic sum that White House officials had no interest in granting.”
Feb. 6: After the World Health Organization shipped 250,000 test kits to labs around the world, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention “began distributing 90 kits to a smattering of state-run health labs,” per Yasmeen, Josh, Ellen, and Greg. “Almost immediately, the state facilities encountered problems.”
Feb. 21: Dr. Robert Kadlec, the top disaster response official at HHS, convened the coronavirus task force to recalibrate the administration's virus response, according to the New York Times's Eric Lipton, David Sanger, Maggie Haberman, Michael Shear, Mark Mazzetti, and Julian Barnes. “The group — including [Fauci]; Dr. Robert R. Redfield of the [CDC], and Mr. Azar, who at that stage was leading the White House task force — concluded they would soon need to move toward aggressive social distancing, even at the risk of severe disruption to the nation’s economy and the daily lives of millions of Americans.”

Feb. 23: Navarro penned a second memo that was circulated in the West Wing, laying “the groundwork for supplemental requests from Congress, with the warning: ‘This is NOT a time for penny-pinching or horse trading on the Hill,’” per Axios's Jonathan Swan. In that memo, Navarro predicted a “full-blown” pandemic “could infect as many as 100 million Americans, with a loss of life of as many as 1-2 million souls.”

Feb. 24: “ … Dr. Kadlec and the others decided to present Mr. Trump with a plan titled 'Four Steps to Mitigation,' telling the president that they needed to begin preparing Americans for a step rarely taken in United States history,” per Lipton, Sanger, Haberman, Shear, Mazzetti, and Barnes. “But over the next several days, a presidential blowup and internal turf fights would sidetrack such a move. The focus would shift to messaging and confident predictions of success rather than publicly calling for a shift to mitigation.”

Feb. 6-29: The testing problems continued, and it wasn't until Feb. 29 that the Food and Drug Administration issued a new policy allowing private labs to proceed with their own tests.

Feb. 29: A Washington state man with an underlying health condition became the first person to die of coronavirus in the United States.

March 11: Trump delivered an Oval Office address on the virus in which he announced the ban of all travel from Europe for 30 days and called to buoy the economy. But the president still did not recommend social distancing.  
March 16: Trump agreed to implement new and stronger guidelines issued by the CDC for Americans to practice social distancing and avoid gatherings of groups of 10 or more people.

       Simply put, despite warnings and suggestions by Public Health professionals and his own appointed secretary for Health and Human services, more than a month elapsed before the president took any meaningful action. Might it have made a significant difference? We’ll probably never really know since we are constrained to “reverse engineering" any such conclusions.

       Seeing and hearing the drivel proffered by Trump, which tends to revolve around the hyperbole of gratuitous superlatives laced with references to “ratings,” one (if a historian of any acumen) is reminded of the stark contrast between Donald Trump and another president facing a far longer (in scope) national emergency.

       Franklin Delano Roosevelt was handed a national crisis, not of his making, different in origin and of far longer duration, but which had similar social problems - loss of jobs, massive unemployment, general fear and uncertainty. He dealt with these by using mass communication media like Trump. There the similarity ends.

        On radio, he (FDR) was able to quell rumors and explain his policies. His tone and demeanor communicated self-assurance during times of despair and uncertainty. Roosevelt was an extremely effective communicator on radio, and the "fireside chats", as they came to be known,  between 1933 and 1944 kept him in high public regard throughout his presidency. He dealt in fact as much as possible and maintained a positive tone, ignoring those who criticized for the most part without self-aggrandizement.

        Though he worked with speechwriters, Roosevelt took an active role in creating the chats, dictating early drafts, and reading aloud revisions until he had almost memorized the text. He was said to be fond of ad-libbing, explaining why official versions of his speeches often vary from the actual recorded radio broadcast version. Trump also is fond of ad-libbing. We call those "lies."

        An early reviewer referred to these as “Fireside Chats”, although in reality, FDR was seated behind his Oval Office desk, surrounded by a battery of microphones The name stuck, as it accurately evoked not only the intent behind Roosevelt’s words, which was to comfort a largely disheartened citizenry, but also by his informal, conversational tone. Roosevelt took care to use the simplest possible language, concrete examples, and analogies in the fireside chats, so as to be clearly understood by the largest number of Americans. He began many of the nighttime chats with the greeting “My friends,” and referred to himself as “I” and the American people as “you” as if addressing his listeners directly and personally.

Here is the opening of a chat of 14 April 1938:

“MY FRIENDS:

Five months have gone by since I last spoke to the people of the Nation about the state of the Nation.

        I had hoped to be able to defer this talk until next week because, as we all know, this is Holy Week. But what I want to say to you, the people of the country, is of such immediate need and relates so closely to the lives of human beings and the prevention of human suffering that I have felt that there should be no delay. In this decision I have been strengthened by the thought that by speaking tonight there may be greater peace of mind and that the hope of Easter may be more real at firesides everywhere, and therefore that it is not inappropriate to encourage peace when many of us are thinking of the Prince of Peace.”  

        See the part where he says he’s “doing a great job and his ratings are high?” Me neither. And he never did.

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