Another analysis by conservative Politifact re: Ted Cruz
Sen. Ted Cruz says premiums have gone 'up and up and up' for
'virtually every person'
A few hours before the Senate voted to end a 16-day
government shutdown and raise the debt ceiling, the lawmaker who played a
leading role in precipitating the crisis, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, spoke to
reporters. Cruz’s mission had been to defund President Barack Obama’s health
care law and, as he has from the start, Cruz listed the failings of the health
care program.
"President Obama promised the American people Obamacare
would lower your health insurance premiums," Cruz said. "I would
venture to say virtually every person across this country has seen exactly the
opposite happen, has seen premiums going up and up and up."
We received many requests to check this statement and so
we’ll examine whether Obamacare meant that "virtually every person across
this country ... has seen premiums going up and up and up."
Not for the entire insurance market
The new health care law takes a private market system and
gives it an overlay of government rules. The private market has two major
sectors -- the group market and the non-group, often called the individual
market.
About 60 percent of Americans under the age of 65 get their
insurance through their employers.That’s the group market, where insurance
companies write policies that cover a lot of workers all at once.
One critic of the new law, Robert
Laszewski, a health insurance consultant and head of Health Policy and Strategy
Associates, says the new health care law has had little impact on
people who currently get their insurance through their work.
"In the large employer market where most under-65 folks
are, the Obamacare increase is a very few percentage points, like 2
points," Laszewski said. Other
experts we talked to echoed that point, without necessarily agreeing to
Laszewski’s specific estimate of a 2 percent increase.
The former head of Medicare and Medicaid under President
George W. Bush, Gail Wilensky, noted the health reform law has touched group
coverage in certain ways, such as allowing children to stay on their parents'
plan.
"Some portion — albeit probably a very small portion
— of all premiums probably have gone up as a result of these requirements,"
Wilensky said. (my note here: and that is because more persons are on the
policy!)
So Cruz’s claim about what "virtually every
person" has seen runs up against the realities of the marketplace. About
two-thirds of Americans buy their insurance in the part of the market where
Obamacare has had the least effect.
Evidence of premium hikes
Where Obamacare has been most active is on the
individual side, which accounts for less than 10 percent of Americans with
insurance. The health insurance marketplaces that opened with fits and
starts this month are all about people buying coverage on their own.
Obamacare requires most everyone to have insurance, says no
one can be denied coverage for a pre-existing health problem and sets minimum
standards for the services that policies must cover. It also offers subsidies
to defray the cost of insurance for many people.
For some, those changes can translate into higher premiums.
From the earliest days of the debate over Obamacare, there
has been general agreement that young people in the individual market would see
the largest hit on their wallets. If they never had insurance, they would now
need to pay for it. If they did have individual coverage, it would be more
expensive.
This is just one study from a group that advocates
conservative policies. Analysts at the Kaiser Family Foundation, an independent
group that enjoys broad credibility, have declined to compare rates before and
after Obamacare on the grounds that good data is lacking. They said we don’t
know what people in the individual market pay today and we don’t know what they
will choose in the Marketplaces.
However, the general idea that young people will pay more
comes as no surprise to Sabrina Corlette, program director for the Center on
Health Insurance Reforms at Georgetown University.
"Young, healthy individuals who buy coverage on their
own might see their rates rise, because they'll now be pooled with older sicker
individuals," Corelette said. "But remember, these folks' premiums
pre-ACA were kept low because plans were able to deny coverage to people with
pre-existing conditions. We're now moving to a system that doesn't discriminate
and that means that yes, some people might have to pay more."
Also, there are early signs that some people who already buy
on the individual market are vulnerable to the minimum coverage requirements
under Obamacare. If their plans fell below that standard, some of them would
get letters from their insurance companies telling them that higher premiums
are in store.
Another important note is that health care premiums
generally have been rising for years, regardless of the health care law.
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, the average
family premium for employer-sponsored plans rose by an average of 5.8 percent
per year from 2008 to 2013. Before that, premiums actually were rising faster. From
1999 to 2008, premiums rose by an average of 13.2 percent a year, Kaiser
found. (Obama was a Senator, Bush was
President! No one blamed “W”)
Our ruling
Cruz said Obamacare has led to premiums going up and up and
up for virtually every person. Cruz was most inaccurate when he spoke
sweepingly about most Americans. The fact is, the majority of Americans
already have insurance and Obamacare has had little impact on their premiums.
The people first in line to see the law’s effects are in the
individual market. There, it is true that young adults, along with some older
adults, are vulnerable to hefty premiums hikes, but as painful as that might
be, their numbers hardly amount to "virtually every person."
One final point: Cruz's comments don't take into account the
many people who will get subsidies as they shop on the health care
marketplaces. People making less than 400 percent of the poverty level will be
eligible for subsidies. If these people have been able to afford to
buy their own insurance before the law, then they should see substantial
decreases in their premiums thanks to the new regulations and subsidies. And
what is “400% of the poverty level? – by my calculations, around $44 -45K annually for a single person.
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