Thursday, April 27, 2023

Greed Gone Wild

 

Greed Gone Wild, A Banking Story of a Different Kind


04/05/2023

It amazed me (but probably shouldn’t have) when Congresspersons and other ignoramuses eagerly leapt on the “Woke” train to blame Silicon Valley Bank’s crisis on issues far more mundane and totally unrelated to any remotely “woke” issues (The woke Federal reserve system? Woke low interest Treasury bills? Spare me) 

And I had a revelation last night. MTG has been somewhat quiet on this issue because she doesn’t even understand how commercial banks work.

There, with that out of the way, the next phase of woke slinging may well be to, in some alternate Universe, tie the SVB problems to the recently announced bailout of Credit Suisse. For the uninitiated, Credit Suisse for years, protected by Swiss banking shields which were based on denying any outside access to depositor data, thrived by being the overseas cache for rich Americans to shield their money from rightful owed taxation. In a 2014 plea agreement with the US, CS (I’m tired of typing the whole name, deal with it) copped to illegally shielding more than $12 billion in assets for wealthy Americans, agreed to stop doing it, and paid a compensatory “fine” of $2.7 million. What was missing from the settlement were the names of most of the US tax scofflaws. By early 2014, before it struck its plea deal that May, Credit Suisse had only divulged information on some 238 out of 22,000 U.S. clients. Again, admitting what they did and that it was illegal. But not who they did it for.

That was 2014. The next administration had little or no interest in white collar crime, seeing as how the President himself was a white-collar crook and had been for years.

The current financial crisis at CS boiled over last week when the bank announced "material weaknesses" in its financial reporting. Before shouting “woke,” and blaming the SVB collapse, however, US legislators would do well to consider that the CS troubles started long before that, with a series of financial and political scandals that hit the bank's reputation and bottom line hard. In the last two years alone, the bank's stock has fallen by more than 80%. It’s hard to think of any corporation which would survive an 80% drop off in value, especially since it was the own doing by shoddy and illegal practices.  CS’s reputation has taken a number of huge hits in recent years, including being linked to a money laundering operation involving a cocaine trafficking ring in Bulgaria, and hiring detectives to spy on an executive who left to work at a rival bank. Seems they just can’t live within the law, huh? To aggravate matters more, even though in February of 2014 following the huge fine and settlement, Credit Suisse’s chief executive at the time, Brady Dougan, told lawmakers at a hearing that the bank had cleaned up so that it only did business with clients who were in compliance with tax laws.

So that’s that, huh? Not exactly. Some months after the plea deal was inked and CS promised to play fair, a whistleblower, through his lawyer, provided some troubling facts.

In an interview, the whistle-blower’s lawyer, said that after the plea deal was signed and as Credit Suisse awaited its final sentencing, he told officials at the tax division of the Justice Department and federal prosecutors who had worked on the case that his client had information that the bank had continued to cloak money held by some U.S. account holders. He gave them one name in particular — Dan Horsky, a retired business professor, who lived in Rochester, N.Y. The following year, federal agents arrested Mr. Horsky, who had amassed a $200 million untaxed fortune and hidden it with the help of Credit Suisse bankers, using offshore shell companies. This from court transcripts and Horsky’s admission under oath. The arrangement lasted for months after the bank signed its plea deal.

Horsky plead out, and in 2017 was sentenced to just 7 months in prison after promising to cooperate fully with prosecutors. The whistleblower, assuming he lives to collect it, could be richly rewarded if US prosecutors move to impose more fines on CS. Under an I.R.S. rule, whistle blowers can get as much as 30 percent of the amount of any additional money the government gets. And, his attorney said, the whistle blower has more names of American accountholders beyond Mr. Horsky’s, although he wouldn’t say how many.

 

Switzerland has been one of the largest offshore financial centers and tax havens in the world since the mid-20th century. Despite an international effort push to meaningfully roll back banking secrecy laws in the country, Swiss social and political forces have minimized and reverted much of proposed rollbacks. Although disclosing criminal activities by banks, who do not enjoy a good reputation even in Switzerland, is generally well seen by the Swiss public, disclosing client information has been prosecuted as a criminal offence since the early 1900s. Employees working in Switzerland and abroad at Swiss banks have been advised to adhere to an unwritten code similar to that observed by doctors or priests". Since 1934, banking secrecy laws have been violated by only four people.

Starting as a way to protect wealthy European banking interests, Swiss banking secrecy was codified in 1934 with the passage of the Federal Act on Banks and Savings Banks. These laws, which were used to protect assets of persons being persecuted by Nazi authorities, have also been used by people and institutions seeking to illegally evade taxes, hide assets, or generally commit financial crime.

This bank failure is so unlike SVB that to even compare them is ludicrous, but someone will do it and maybe even blame the SVB collapse for triggering the Credit Suisse collapse which was already imminent due to their own illegal banking practices. And bet on it that some of those American tax scofflaws are well, known and politically active. CS has been bought out by their largest competitor.  Under the deal, UBS Group AG will buy Credit Suisse for more than $3 billion in an all stock deal. How they will handle the deposits and practices of CS remains to be seen. Either way SVB is unrelated to the decline and fall of this crooked Swiss Bank, so save your “woke.”  SVB was due to poor economic investment management and unforeseen FED actions, Credit Suisse was more like a record of criminal conspiracy which had damaged the value of their brand to the point that any global banking concern was the straw, and they were the camel.     

 

 

Covid Revisited

     

                                   Covid Revisited

04/26/2023

I noted today that Johns Hopkins, which has maintained a comprehensive Covid data base from the beginning, has stopped collecting data as of late March. As I browsed the tables I noted some interesting and telling facts. Before I continue, my reason for the look-see was to find out how our current governor’s generally lax policy re: Covid had affected the state’s population as compared to statistically similar groups. I was especially interested in the effect of the ban on mask mandates in schools and his initial espousal of ineffective monoclonal antibody treatment coupled with essentially no public policy related to social distancing.

        For starters, Florida has reported 7,547,590 cases and 86,850 deaths. When listing death totals I am fairly sure Hopkins relied on State Health Department numbers. I cannot tell if there has been any State House pressure to understate those deaths due to related preconditions, such as pre-existing lung issues which caused the eventual demise. Florida’s population density is high for a US state, at 414 per square mile. High population density is an obvious issue in controlling infectious disease spread. Florida’s total population is about 22 million.

I decided to compare Florida’s results with another country of high population density and even higher population, South Korea. South Korea stressed vaccination and masking and did it early. With a population of 51 million, more than double that of Florida, and a population density of 1,333 per square mile, it would be logical to assume that if Florida and S. Korea’s Covid responses were equally effective, S. Korea should have had significantly more cases and more fatalities. The results are revelatory. As expected, based on 3.2 times the population density, South Korea had 30,970,937 cases (slightly higher than Florida adjusted for population density. But, due to health care immediacy and almost universal vaccination the death toll is 34,093. Florida’s death toll is 86,850 and counting, or 250% that of S. Korea!

Another noticeable statistical fact of interest? For South Koreans over 21, the vaccination rate averages more than 95%. This shows what we already know, which is that even without the new bivalent booster, which is more effective in prevention, vaccination reduces fatalities significantly. Florida is only 70% fully vaccinated and only 1% have received a booster dose. Also of interest, South Korea’s median age is higher than Florida’s. 

       Not Florida specific, but of interest is a Harvard study of Covid rates among children having had MMR vaccinations pre- school and the same age group in places such as Oregon, where MMR is not a mandated pre-school requirement. The results are revelatory. For the age groups studied, the rate of reported cases was significantly lower and actual cases were lower in severity in MMR vaccinated children. One theory is that the MMR imparts a somewhat different and non-specific viral resistance. These results are also evident in China, where measles vaccination is essentially universal and Italy where it is not. In fact, some medical experts have offered the opinion that in a shortage or absence of Covid vaccine, MMR might well be a good alternative.

 One last thing related to this theory is the case of the USS Theodore Roosevelt. The Navy’s testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier was revelatory. Roughly 60 percent of the over 4000 sailors who tested positive showed no symptoms of COVID-19. Of those with symptoms, just three were hospitalized and one died. That’s a fatality rate of .0025  cent compared to a US fatality rate of 1% (of confirmed cases.) Other than the younger age group there is one other significant fact. All US military enlistees and Academy graduates receive MMR vaccines in basic training. The takeaway? Anti-vaxxers are placing their children at enhanced risk of more severe Covid. 

Thursday, April 20, 2023

Even More Ways People Don't Use language Good

 

                   Even more ways people don’t use                      language good:

 

                I have former colleagues who are English teachers, or as they are now known – “Language Arts” teachers.  Unfortunately, the “art” part seems to be shriveling on the vine.  They frequently hover somewhere between outrage, depression, resigned doldrum and despair, due to the horrific things being done to the English language these days. We seem to be bombarded from all quarters with perversions of the language. I reflected on some more of the things that drive them and me nuts and came up with this partial list of additional execrable things, in addition to those in a recent rant, which I find annoying.

 

.   1. No word in the language is made plural by the use of an apostrophe followed by an "s"! Not a one, none, zip, nada. period.  Yet we see TV ads and signboards paid for, I assume, by persons who want "consumer's" to appreciate their superior "product's." I wish I was making this up, but the other day I saw an advertisement for "donut's."  A misspelling wrapped in a mis-punctuation ...aargh, make it stop!

2. A point that is so obvious or so immutable that arguing it is pointless is "moot."  It isn't "mute", as about 60 % of Americans spell and pronounce it. Of course, if it were actually mute, there couldn't be an argument anyway.

 3. There are three homophones (sometimes confused with the word homonym and having nothing to do with sexuality) that sound like "there."  Unfortunately, in Facebook Speak, a particularly virulent form of language abuse, they are used interchangeably: “there” (in that place), “their” (Facebook land), with no regard to their (plural possessive) totally different meaning, and “they're” (contraction for "they are") This is one of the more heinous examples of this genre, but is followed closely by the all too frequent bastardization of “you're” and “your”, as in, “You're (contraction of you are) clearly demonstrating  your syntactical illiteracy (it belongs to you) by the entry on your Facebook page.”

4. Just as bad is the misuse of the word “board.” I've seen entries such as "I'm board (in fact, a piece of wood)."   The correct terminology, (unless proudly proclaiming “wood”), is, of course, “I'm bored,” as in “I need something to do” These could be self-correcting if you use some imagination.

5. We are frequently bombarded by commercials urging us to use a product or plan an event or order food "How you want it". This is really common and really incorrect. You can have it the way you want it, or as you want it; or if you're Shakespeare, "As You Like it." Them's the choices.

6. Very few things in the Universe are so homogeneous that the word "totally" is apt or appropriate five or six times in a sentence when describing it or them. Just stop it! Ok? Ok! 

7. I thought this discussion was laid to rest in a great episode of Murphy Brown, but it lives on around here.  What the hell does "alls I know" mean? (as in: "Well, alls I know is that he got a hernia.”) The only words that are even homophones for this non-word ("alls") are "awls" as in several leatherworking tools and a selection of what Paula Deen dresses salads with - "oils" -pronounced awls, as in "Awl and Vinegar dressin'")

8." Irregardless" isn't a real word, it is a distressingly more and more frequent irregular usage of "regardless."  If you doubt me, open up your word processor, type "irregardless" and spell check it. Guess what the proffered correction is? Irregardless" isn't a real word, it is a distressingly more and more frequent irregular usage of "regardless." You guessed it - regardless. Microsoft Word said it, so be it.

9. “I know, right?” No, Luther, I don’t know – wrong! This doesn’t fit anywhere, except as in a “filler” phrase which is made relatively meaningless by adding a totally gratuitous “right.?” If you actually utter this nonsensical drivel, you have already agreed with another statement, so why ask them if they agree with what they’ve just said, “right?”

10. A definitive, uniquely designated thing is "specific." The Ocean west of the Americas is Pacific. I can't give you a "Pacific reason" for your linguistic shortcomings other than gross ignorance.

11. The last, and most convoluted of my list (to date) is two homonyms and a homophone, all of which I have seen thoroughly confused and misapplied.  “Through” (as in via), “through” (as in finished, used far more than it should be, when “finished,” “over” and/or “done” are better words.), and “threw”, (as in tossed) seem to be essentially interchangeable in the minds of many these days. An abused cousin of these three is “thorough” (as in complete, comprehensive), which is often inappropriately abridged in Ad speak to thoro.   On the bright side there is one application of these which everyone gets right/wrong.  If someone barfs, hurls, heaves, pukes, yawns in Technicolor, sells Buicks or upchucks, we all say they “threw up.” No one says "he through" up. On the other hand, "it" never stays "up", but always comes down, usually on someone's shoes, hair or back seat.

And I do believe that's all I have to say about that (for now).

Thursday, April 13, 2023

Top Tens Dave Letterman Wouldn't Do!

 

                   Top Tens Unsuitable for TV 


Top ten ways to tell he's not the one

10. You have a job and he doesn't

9.  He comes to your job and eats other worker's lunches

8.  He has an imaginary friend named Rollo, with whom he chats during sex.

7.  He goes on retreats to "get in touch with his inner woman"

6.  Two words - "head lice"

5.  Roadkill gives him a woody. (woodie?) who knows

4.  He insists diamonds are ordinary, but handcuffs are forever.

3.  He names his body parts for members of the Third Reich (say hi to little Adolph!)

2.  He swears he loves only you and Ginni Thomas.

1.  He has athlete's crotch

 

Poor choices for Animal heroes of children's books

10. Clucky the Rhode Island Red, the communist chicken

9. Harry the horny Hamster

8. Curious Bruce, the sexually ambiguous Kangaroo

7. Humpy the Great Dane

6. Andy, the incontinent Aardvark

5. Barfy, the hairball Cat

4. Clifford the big red Shrew

3. Larry Lyme, tick detective

2. Manny the bipolar electric Eel

1. Francis the flatulent Fawn

 

Top ten ways to tell she's not the one

10.  She has a smile like the love child of Marjorie Taylor Green  and The Joker.

9.   She hoards cats

8.   She stuffs envelopes for the NRA and has a "Ted Nugent slept here" tramp stamp.

7.   Her role model is Sarah Palin.

6.  Her pinup calendar features Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham in compromising positions.

5.  She refuses to give up her job as a sex surrogate for impotent dwarfs.

4.  Her high school yearbook describes her as "most likely to develop acquired immunity to STDs."

3. During sex she randomly shouts the names of Kid Rock, Harvey Weinstein, Joel Osteen, and the entire Bayonne chapter of Hell's Angels.

2.  She insists her mom come along on the honeymoon "for moral support."

1. She's conjoined with her brother at the pelvis.

 

Top ten collectibles while driving from Washington, DC to The Villages, Florida in one day.

10.  A speeding ticket in Virginia for driving while being from Florida.

9.    15 ounces of love bug innards on your windshield.

8.   40-ounce drive thru drink in collectable NASCAR cup.

7.   Unplanned 40-ounce emergency pee at next rest stop.

6.   A "South of the Border" Dale Earnhart commemorative spit cup.

5.   Athlete’s butt.

4.   A roadkill armadillo, or as it’s known in Georgia, "Possum on the Half Shell."

3.   Nausea from Georgia pulp mills.

 2.  The middle finger from the hitchhiker with dreadlocks, shorts at half-mast and a meat axe on his shoulder.

1.  A determination to fly next time.

Thursday, April 6, 2023

Professional Prevaricators

 

 

                           Professional Prevaricators

        At times it seems almost as if we are being intentionally bombarded with the most egregious bullshit using the premise of the originator that, although it's mostly crap, some of it is bound to stick and will go into the mental banks of people that are prone to listen to such garbage. This is the technique used by Joseph Goebbels, Hitler’s architect of Nazi propaganda, before and during World War Two. Sadly, the “big lie” approach is alive and well and lives largely in the home of the Republican Party.

        As it turns out, not all of these are even politically motivated; sometimes they're just examples of the sheer stupidity of the originator. Here is one such example: “Tylenol ruins your ability to kill the Covid virus. An infected person with a fever is better off letting it run its course.” If this actually came from competent medical authority one would probably be well advised to listen and act on it. However, this is an Instagram post from a person named Ben Lynch who claims to be a practicing naturopathic doctor but has never been to medical school. Sadly, that will not keep some of his readers from believing it.

        Closer to home, we have the babblings of former governor Rick Scott who said, and I quote, "Thanks to the insane tax-and-spending spree of President Joe Biden and Democrats in Washington, we are seeing six straight months of raging inflation."  If any of this was true, it would be less offensive, but “tax and spend” is a resurrection of the pre-Reagan era mantra of the Right. President Biden has not, as of today, raised taxes because that requires an act of Congress, not an executive fiat, a fact which Scott certainly should (and does) know. Additionally, if any taxes were increased, if one looks at Bidens tax priorities, it would increase federal revenues, not add to the deficit. Scott knows this too; he just hopes you don’t. Let us analyze the reality here.

        Right of the bat, 2020 and 2021 were exceptional years, in that significant deficit spending was involved in fighting the global pandemic’s effects here in the US.  There is no actual study (yet) of how much more healthcare spending occurred because those who refused to vaccinate in 2021 added to already overloaded hospital costs, but I believe it to be significant. That said, Scott spoke of “insane spending” which must mean he has a short memory since “his President” (the currently indicted DJ Trump) introduced an even stranger concept- “reduce tax and spend more.”  We have seen and heard it before. Reagan ballyhooed his tax cut and the deficit increased. Trump’s tax cut has generated zero increase in federal revenues, but, in the first three (non-pandemic) years of his administration, the federal deficit steadily increased from the last Obama budget. This is worthy of note since Trump, as no President has done before him, harshly criticized Obama, even to the point of essentially blaming him for the housing bubble collapse which began two years before he took the oath of office. Trump extolled his tax cut and proclaimed the “best economy ever” even as the deficit soared.

         Numerous potential factors are at play as far as rising prices are concerned. Short-term supply interruptions, labor shortages, tariffs on imported goods (see: Trump, Donald), or simply the cyclical growth in consumer demand when the economy is recovering from a downturn. Economists looking at today’s inflation caution that the precise cause is hard to pin down, and they vary on how much impact the most recent spending is having, but all of them are clear that heavy spending is not just a Biden administration phenomenon. It started well before that, as the government tried to protect Americans and the economy from the ravages of a global pandemic.                

    Biden has not raised any taxes and cannot by himself. Scott is blaming him for what he (Scott) thinks he might do. Secondly as to the “insane spending,” over two-thirds of the spending Scott is speaking of was signed into law by Donald Trump. Finally, for now, Scott also ignores the fact that his home state of Florida is one of the red states which extended unemployment benefits to anti-vaxxers who quit or were fired because they refused Covid vaccination. Yep, Rick Scott also blames Biden for inflation, ignoring what every sane economist has said regarding supply chain issues and increased post-recession demand spikes. Scott, himself a multi-billion-dollar Medicare fraud scofflaw who, in an honest arena would have been incarcerated for it, is so much less than Florida deserves.

        Finally, for now, let us revisit a man who, if he is speaking, is lying. Who might that be? Why Tucker Carlson, of course. It’s as if when Rush Limbaugh died Carlson saw an opening for the post of “media bullshitter in chief.”

        Carlson is a bit different, in that that most professionals tend to lead with a germ of truth to enhance viewer gullibility before they go to full bore dissimulation. Not old Tucker. He is so convinced that his Faux News bully pulpit is bullet proof that he just jumps right in. The Carlson whopper I’m about to discuss is yesterday’s news, but so typical of the man that when I stumbled on it, I had to rehash the events in question. Here’s what he said, verbatim: “Unbeknownst to most people, the Green New Deal came to Texas; the power grid in the state became totally reliant on windmills. Then it got cold, and the windmills broke, because that’s what happens in the Green New Deal." (Note:   I have seen actual “windmills” in Holland, and they don’t produce electricity, but hey, that’s Carlson.)  

         No, it’s what happens for other reasons unrelated to the use of wind power, and by the way, the Green New Deal is an idea which is neither federal policy nor a particularly good idea, but that’s another rant.

        For starters, yes, Texas does generate a lot of electricity with wind power. Their 17.8 Megawatts of generation leads the nation, but it must be noted that the figure represents just 10% of the winter energy supply in the Texas power grid. For comparison, wind power in Texas is a mere 22% of that produced by any of my three Submarines So how about the other 90 per cent? As it turns out, there are several factors which are “typically Texas” at work here: 

        First and foremost: Texas is the only state in the nation to not be linked to the national power grid, solely due to its fundamental business model: profit and lack of public interest meaningful regulation. Yes, that is correct, and when the Texas grid “shat its linen” during a record blizzard two years ago, there was no help to be had from neighboring states. Blaming wind turbines, which Texas Governor Abbott did initially before he walked back that claim when proven to have lied, has one great, gaping flaw.

         Both North and South Dakota, arguably the coldest states in the lower 48, generate a much higher percentage of electricity by wind turbine (over 30% in 2021). The Swedes and Finns also use wind turbines Remember the power outages there? Me neither, and that’s because wind turbine manufacturers build “freeze packs” for turbines used in low temperature applications. The largely underregulated Texas providers “went cheap “and consumers paid for it. But wait, what about the majority of Texas electric power production facilities which, by the way, run on fossil fuels? As it happened, the turbines which push gas through pipelines to the generation facilities failed, also improvidently lacking freeze protection. This is what happens when under-regulation and profit trump human considerations.

         During the period of outages, wholesale electric prices went to as high as $9,000/megawatt-hour which was only limited as a "system cap", under the loosely regulated state power authority compared to a more typical $50/MWh. Customers with pricing plans based on wholesale prices faced much larger bills. Some customers signed up for wholesale variable rates plans allowed by the Texas deregulated electricity market, found themselves facing over $5,000 bills for five days of service during the storm. The final estimate of the human cost is over 250 deaths due to conditions related to the power outages. Of course, that wasn’t the Ted Cruz family who flew to Mexico.

        Carlson simply takes any pot shot available at things, people, and principles which don’t align with his white supremacist, anti-government and complete disregard for the truth, approach. Faux News is apparently fine with that.

Monday, April 3, 2023

Parallels

 

                                       Parallels

 

          Recent events in Florida’s public schools regarding what to teach (or not) and how to teach it have made me reexamine this essay. It contains some history of which many are either unaware or uncertain. Yes, it’s long, yes it’s informative. 

        The issue of teaching critical race theory (or not) has an earlier parallel, at least for me as an older History teacher. That was the issue of US involvement in Southeast Asia. I had enlisted in the US Navy in 1964, in large part because I believed the US involvement in Vietnam to be misguided and flawed policy (and my draft number was up). 34 years later, as an Advanced Placement United States (APUS) History teacher, I sometimes had students whose fathers or other male relatives had been personally involved in that 20-year undeclared war.  I realized that simply stating a personal opinion related to my feelings on the war could upset one or two students whose sole source of information was highly personalized by a close family member, and I would not want that to occur.

        This concern actually arose a year or two earlier in an Honors class.  We were watching Peter Jennings’ superb 2000 ten-part documentary entitled The Century. This was the 20th century in photos and interviews with those who lived events, decade by decade. During the segment involving Viet Nam, several Americans were interviewed, including Vice Admiral James Stockdale, the longest imprisoned US POW. In the interview, the Admiral stated that he had been flying over the area in the Gulf of Tonkin where and at the time which LBJ would later claim a US destroyer was fired upon by North Vietnamese small craft. He stated categorically that the attack, used by the Johnson administration as justification for ramping up the war effort, simply never happened. We know now, based partly on (then LBJ’s SecDef) Bob McNamara’s soul salvaging attempt in the film, “The Fog of War”, that the attack, presented to a national TV audience by LBJ, was fiction and pro-escalation propaganda. After the video was finished, one female student was very indignant in proclaiming that the Gulf of Tonkin Incident was “real” because her father who was in the Navy told her so. (It turns out later that he was stateside at the time.)  

        Having said that, let me point out that by responsible use of truly primary source information one can get the point across in a much less offensive (or at least non confrontational) manner. This is primarily about Vietnam but has disturbing parallels to the current Afghan situation. I will use three primary source telegrams as examples. Because a couple are difficult to read as a I copied them, I will type the text and attribute it:     

First, a telegram from Ho Chi Minh to Harry Truman:

Hanoi February 28 1946

President Hochiminh Vietnam Democratic Republic Hanoi

To the President of the United States of America Washington, D. C.

        On behalf of Vietnam government and people I beg to inform you that in course of conversation between Vietnam government and French representatives, the latter require the secession of Cochinchina (ed: Vietnam) and the return of French troops in Hanoi. (stop) Meanwhile French population and troops are making active preparations for a coup de main (ed: “armed takeover”) in Hanoi and for military aggression (stop) I therefore most earnestly appeal to you personally and to the American people to interfere urgently in support of our independence and help making(sic) the negotiations more in keeping with of the Atlantic and San Francisco charters.

                                   Respectfully

                                             Hochiminh

                       (cursive signature in Latin alphabet)

        During the year prior to his death, FDR had made clear to associates his distaste for the French dominion in SE Asia and his opposition to allowing it to be reinstated after the War. Tragically, none of it was written in any sort of policy document. So: what were the “charters” Ho refers to?     

        The Atlantic Charter was a document entered into by FDR and Churchill which called for, among other principles, an end to colonialism as a by- product of WWII. Most importantly, both the United States and Great Britain were committed to supporting the restoration of self-governments for all countries that had been occupied during the war and allowing all peoples to choose their own form of government.  And… although a bit grudgingly, Britain did rid itself of India within 2 years, creating Pakistan, in the process. Ho is simply asking President Truman to hold the French to that same principle. The second Charter mentioned is the Charter of the United Nations which was signed in San Francisco, in June of 1945, and also carries negative language related to colonialism. Although signators, several European colonial powers, especially France, and Belgium, chafed at this. Belgium, which had been brutally exploitative in the Congo was especially resistant. France, with significant holdings in Algeria and Southeast Asia was also hesitant to let go, but in fact, there had been a British presence in India and the British army, with a significant number of Indian nationals, both Islamic and Hindu, had defended India throughout. France, on the other hand, had abandoned Indochina, and now intended to take it back, by force if necessary.

        There is a wide abyss between what many in the US believed about Vietnam and Ho Chi Minh because of something we are seeing today, which is the blame game played by the minority party. One need understand that there was positive, almost ghoulish, private jubilation among some Far-Right Republicans over FDR’s passing, while most Americans, but not most Republicans, saw him as a minor deity. Stirring the fires of anti-Communist hysteria became the new Congressional sport and, President by happenstance, Harry S. Truman and his administration, the targets of choice. Obviously, the Ho telegram was ignored, presumably because of HO’s politics and Harry Truman’s desire not to look in any way sympathetic to a communist. The message itself and the fact that the US ignored it, remains a sad example of what happens when people become secondary to political persuasion. Millions would die as a result.

        Through WWII the Democrats held a significant Congressional majority, as most Americans supported FDR’s conduct of the war.       When The GOP gained control briefly in the 88th Congress during 1947-49, even such stalwarts as Truman's main foreign policy advisor 1945-1947 and later SecState, Dean Acheson, (slandered by the right as “The Red Dean”) came under the lash of the GOP Red baiters. There seemed to be a sort of “Wait ‘til Truman has gone because he sure as hell can’t get elected on his own” spirit among GOP hard liners, but Democrats regained the majority in 1948, swept along with an unexpected Truman victory, while Republicans began playing the “Soft on Communism” card, which game would really gain major league status after Truman’s surprise 1948 upset win,    

        But one need ask, “What did the experts really think was the danger posed by Communism, and why?”  Probably the best primary source, at least an expert opinion, came to Washington in a document known to most historians as “The Long Telegram.”

        George Kennan must be mentioned in this discussion because he was influential in shaping opinions on dealing with Communism and then reversing course when his concept became Truman foreign policy. As Head of Mission In Moscow, Kennan felt that his opinions were being ignored by Truman and the State department policy wonks. He tried numerous times to persuade policymakers to abandon plans for cooperation with the Soviet government in favor of a “sphere of influence” policy in Europe to reduce the Soviets' power there.

        Finally, when the Treasury Department posed him a question regarding Soviet resistance to involvement in the World Bank, on February 22, 1946, Kennan vented his frustration by sending a lengthy 5,3063-word(!!) telegram, commonly called "The Long Telegram," from Moscow to Secretary of State James Byrnes, outlining a new strategy for diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union. In it, he urged that a federation (later realized as NATO) needed to be established in western Europe to counter Soviet influence in the region and to compete against the Soviet stronghold in eastern Europe.

        This and other concepts were outlined in this marathon telegram. Most significant, perhaps, was his belief (at the time) that the only way to deal with Soviet dictator Josef Stalin was to meet strength with strength, which became known as The Truman Doctrine, of which a central point was the concept of “Containment”.  This became interpreted in several ways. One, a non-military response, was the brilliant, if costly, Marshall Plan, economically helping western European war-ravaged nations in the hope they could resist communist expansionist efforts.

        The more critical point, however, came from a misinterpretation at home that the Soviets were a danger to attack the USA, and the way to stall such aims was to confront Soviet efforts in any nation whose security was threatened. Relatively few Americans ever heard Kennan’s name at the time, as the contents, when released, were attributed to “X.” The public release of Kennan’s telegram was in the form of an article written by Kennan as “X” published in “Foreign Affairs” magazine in July 1947.

As a prime example of the law of unintended consequences many Americans influenced, by misinterpretation of Kennan’s focus on the “Red” he knew, Josef Stalin, immediately ascribed the same characteristics to anyone who had ever called themselves a communist or even just a Socialist and, going to the point of the matter, this included Ho Chi Minh and would later include Fidel Castro. It led many to believe that Ho was a pawn of Stalin, instead of what he actually was - a Vietnamese nationalist who just wanted to not be under French Colonial political, and worse, economic dominion.     

        Reflecting a moment, Americans’ general willingness to regard Southeast Asians as “children of a lesser God” should not be all that surprising, considering that just 50 years earlier the US had killed 20,000 Filipino combatants and caused conditions leading to the deaths of more than ten times that many civilians. The circumstances are sadly familiar. We (the US) “liberated” the Philippines from Spain and then when they thanked us and said, “We got it,” we said, “No you don’t, you are incapable of self-government,” as we had done earlier in Cuba. This reasoning actually sprung from the US desire to have a major naval base closer to mainland Asia as the Boxer rebellion on the Chinese mainland was in full swing, and the realization that ethnic Chinese had evolved into significant influence in Manila.

This Filipino slaughter went on for three years until anti-colonialist Americans like Mark Twain and others made it such an issue that the decision was made that they were now fit to live under our supervision until we “granted” independence in 1946. We had treated Hawaii in similar manner in 1893. Our arrogance in Afghanistan is simply a continuance, but I digress.

        The Truman Doctrine as this “containment” policy became known, led to Congressional approval of $400 million of military and economic aid to Greece and Turkey in 1947, the Berlin Airlift, and most significantly, a year later, the $13 billion Marshall Plan, aimed at rebuilding a free Europe which could withstand Soviet influences.  As the doctrine began to look more and more as if US military involvement might become an inherent cog in the machine, George Kennan became fairly vocal in stating that he had meant economic and social competition, not military involvement, but the cat had left the bag.   

In part, the long telegram said: (after Kennan’s opening apology for the extreme length of the missive)

“Experience has shown that peaceful and mutually profitable coexistence of capitalist and socialist states is entirely possible. Basic internal conflicts in advanced countries are no longer primarily those arising out of capitalist ownership of means of production but are ones arising from advanced urbanism and industrialism as such, which Russia has thus far been spared not by socialism but only by her own backwardness. Internal rivalries of capitalism do not always generate wars; and not all wars are attributable to this cause. To speak of possibility of intervention against USSR today, after elimination of Germany and Japan and after example of recent war, is sheerest nonsense. If not provoked by forces of intolerance and subversion, "capitalist" world of today is quite capable of living at peace with itself and with Russia. Finally, no sane person has reason to doubt sincerity of moderate socialist leaders in Western countries. Nor is it fair to deny success of their efforts to improve conditions for working population whenever, as in Scandinavia, they have been given chance to show what they could do.”

Somewhat overlooked is this later paragraph which argues against military intervention, a position Kennan retreated to by the late 1940s.

And this:  We must see that our public is educated to realities of Russian situation. I cannot over-emphasize importance of this. Press cannot do this alone. It must be done mainly by Government, which is necessarily more experienced and better informed on practical problems involved. In this we need not be deterred by [ugliness?] of picture. I am convinced that there would be far less hysterical anti-Sovietism in our country today if realities of this situation were better understood by our people.

        Although just a sample of this massive document, it conveys what I feel was Kennan’s “lost” message (I paraphrase) “The Russians will continue trying to convince others of the value of their system, but it really has huge flaws and like capitalism, internal disputes as well.” Taken as a whole, I read it as “Stalin’s a power-hungry asshole but he has enough problems at home to deal with and most Russians are decent folks.”  Sadly, many on the Right viewed it as “All Communists are just like Stalin and any local communist effort anywhere is directed from Moscow.” Gradually, a sort of the “Reds are everywhere” hysteria began to take shape, and anyone who had ever considered Communism/Socialism even as simply a political exercise (people like Lucille Ball, who went to one Communist meeting in the 1930s) came under suspicion.

        As a final Kennan critique: One of his assertions was that there was no provision for orderly Soviet leadership succession, which was belied by Nikita Khrushchev’s assumption of leadership after Stalin’s death. While Stalin gloried in his military past and was almost never photographed out of uniform, Khrushchev always appeared in business dress, stressing a “bloodless” transition to civilian leadership, in 1953, which probably surprised Kennan and a host of others.   

        In early 1950, two events occurred which reflect not only the Red Scare, but the politicization of it. The first is a telegram from a failing Senator from Wisconsin, who, desperate to win his next election, and (it’s true) on the advice of his priest, made some claims which rattled America.        

 

The President the White House 1950, February 11

“In a Lincoln Day dinner at Wheeling (W.VA) Thursday night, I stated that the State Department harbors a nest of Communists and Communist sympathizers who are helping to shape our Foreign policy. I further stated that I have in my possession, the names of 57 Communists who are in the State department at present”

        This telegram from Senator Joseph McCarthy, and his actions in Wheeling generated incendiary waves of “Red baiting” and generally baseless allegations. Both Truman and later Eisenhower loathed McCarthy, but the anti-Red tide was a political juggernaut. I will, for the sake of brevity (yeah, I know, too late) leave non-foreign policy issues aside, although there were many.    

       The second event happened halfway around the world just 4 months later, as North Korean communist troops, supported by the opportunistic Chinese and Soviets, invaded South Korea. Following Japanese surrender on 15 August 1945, the United States and the Soviet Union divided Korea along the 38th parallel into two zones of occupation, with the Soviets administering the northern zone and the Americans the southern zone. In 1948, as Cold War tensions escalated, the occupation zones became two sovereign states. A capitalist state, the Republic of Korea, was established in the south under the leadership of Syngman Rhee, and a socialist state, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea was established in the north under the Communist and drastically totalitarian leadership of Kim Il-sung.

        Both governments of the two new Korean states claimed to be the sole legitimate government of all of Korea, and neither accepted the border as permanent. In other words, the US and USSR had split Korea into “our guys” and “their guys.” No elections, no conferences, just two western powers dictating Asian policy. This was compounded by the elephant in the room, the newly established People’s Republic of China, also militantly Communist. In June, 1950, North Korean military crossed onto the South and rapidly drove the South Korean army and US occupation forces to a last ditch stand at Pusan, near the southern end of the Korean Peninsula.

        President Truman believed if aggression went unchecked, a chain reaction would be initiated that would marginalize the UN and encourage Communist aggression elsewhere. Another major concern was the security of Japan, still a capitalist and US post-war occupied nation. The US immediately began using air and naval forces that were in the area to that end. The Truman administration still hesitated to commit more troops on the ground because some advisers believed the North Koreans could be stopped by air and naval power alone. Since US occupation troops were under increasingly heavy fire, and after receiving a (still unattributed publicly) communique assuring that Soviet troops would not oppose US troops in Korea, Truman sent US troops to help the South. Soon after, a UN Security Council resolution denouncing the Northern aggression, passed in the absence of a Soviet representative, led to UN troops from various nations being ultimately involved, but the majority of non- South Korean troops were American. Skipping the numerous and gory details, the Korean War ended in a stalemate after 3 years of slaughter, in July 1953. Most Americans had, and still have, no idea that there were several options which included nuclear weapons actively considered by both Truman and, later, Eisenhower.    

        Of course, anti-Communist sentiment in the US was used by some for political gain. Joseph McCarthy took full advantage of this via many questionable and controversial tactics to become chair of the Senate Government Operations committee by 1953.

        Meanwhile, across the Pacific, the French, consistent with Ho’s pleading telex, had been attempting to reassert dominion in Vietnam and were being met with surprising (to them) resistance. Some American politicians were eager to note that the opposition to the French occupation was led by Ho Chi Minh who they loudly pointed out was a Communist. As previously noted, to many this meant he was Stalin, Mao and Kim all rolled into one. In truth he was far less doctrinaire and far more concerned with independence for his nation.  The fact that the Vietnamese were rigorously defending their own turf became an increasing concern to US Politicians as most US citizens at the time had no idea of where or what Vietnam was. One awkward issue was that the Vietnamese Vietminh party who resisted Japan and were US WWII allies, were also receiving Soviet weapons to use against the French, and the French Republic had a steady and increasing French Communist party at home to contend with. This led to US chucking the Vietminh under the bus and supporting the French puppet monarchy.    

        The United States decision to provide military assistance to France and the Associated States of Indochina was reached informally in February/March 1950, funded by the President on May 1, 1950, and was announced on May 8 of that year. Later authorizations involved US air power, Naval forces, and military advisors. CIA operatives had been in place as early as 1947, and by 1953 were actively engaged in covert actions against the Vietminh. Even so, between March 13 and May 7, 1954, Vietminh forces supported by some Soviet advisors and material, defeated the French occupation army, supported by US airpower and financing and what amounted to Southeast Asian mercenaries, at Dien Bien Phu.

         The Geneva Conference on July 21, 1954, recognized the 17th parallel north as a "provisional military demarcation line", temporarily dividing the country into two zones, communist North Vietnam, and pro-Western South Vietnam. Note this line from the Geneva treaty: “The Conference takes note of the clauses in the agreement on the cessation of hostilities in Viet-Nam prohibiting the introduction into Viet-Nam of foreign troops and military personnel as well as of all kinds of arms and munitions.”  And: “The Conference declares that, so far as Viet-Nam is concerned. the settlement of political problems, effected on the basis of respect for the principles of independence, unity and territorial integrity, shall permit the Viet-Namese people to enjoy the fundamental freedoms, guaranteed by democratic institutions established as a result of free general elections by secret ballot”

Long story short (I know, too late):

        20 July 1956 was the date specified in the Geneva Accords for national elections to re-unify North and South Vietnam. The elections were not held because (new) President Diem said South Vietnam was not a party to the Accords. Earlier local elections had been skewed by armed intimidation of villagers assisted by US CIA advisors.  Most observers believe that Ho Chi Minh would have won the elections easily. In fact, President Dwight Eisenhower stated that he was sure “"If the elections had been held in 1956, Ho Chi Minh would have won 80 percent of the vote." Viewing that the South had ignored the Geneva Convention requirements and would never allow true national elections, The North declared war on the South’s regime. At this point, the US decided to get involved in a war to maintain an illegal regime and disallow free elections. Why? Because Ho was a communist. Despite what the world had decided, we then decided that some people, especially Asians, apparently, should not be allowed to decide the direction of their nation by democratic processes.

        From that time forward, US involvement, including the overthrow of one South Vietnamese leader and the assassination of another revolved around several issues, including the fact that many rural Vietnamese had always supported Ho and that South Vietnamese leaders were blatantly corrupt. Add tribalism, ignoring the welfare of many citizens and a national military more than a bit unwilling to defend the nation and it all leads to the eventual “declare victory and leave” Nixon decision in 1975, just 2 million deaths later.  

        Sound familiar yet? It should, because we, as a nation are slow learners. In many ways, the failure of foreign policy aimed at telling a mixed population what they should do and believe in Southeast Asia is equally ill advised in Central Asia. In case you missed it, we’ve been practicing for the evacuation of Afghanistan for well over a century. One difference, President Biden pulled us out of this rabbit hole, knowing that doing the right thing is frequently not easy, or even popular, but it is always justified.