Covid Revisited

     

                                   Covid Revisited

04/26/2023

I noted today that Johns Hopkins, which has maintained a comprehensive Covid data base from the beginning, has stopped collecting data as of late March. As I browsed the tables I noted some interesting and telling facts. Before I continue, my reason for the look-see was to find out how our current governor’s generally lax policy re: Covid had affected the state’s population as compared to statistically similar groups. I was especially interested in the effect of the ban on mask mandates in schools and his initial espousal of ineffective monoclonal antibody treatment coupled with essentially no public policy related to social distancing.

        For starters, Florida has reported 7,547,590 cases and 86,850 deaths. When listing death totals I am fairly sure Hopkins relied on State Health Department numbers. I cannot tell if there has been any State House pressure to understate those deaths due to related preconditions, such as pre-existing lung issues which caused the eventual demise. Florida’s population density is high for a US state, at 414 per square mile. High population density is an obvious issue in controlling infectious disease spread. Florida’s total population is about 22 million.

I decided to compare Florida’s results with another country of high population density and even higher population, South Korea. South Korea stressed vaccination and masking and did it early. With a population of 51 million, more than double that of Florida, and a population density of 1,333 per square mile, it would be logical to assume that if Florida and S. Korea’s Covid responses were equally effective, S. Korea should have had significantly more cases and more fatalities. The results are revelatory. As expected, based on 3.2 times the population density, South Korea had 30,970,937 cases (slightly higher than Florida adjusted for population density. But, due to health care immediacy and almost universal vaccination the death toll is 34,093. Florida’s death toll is 86,850 and counting, or 250% that of S. Korea!

Another noticeable statistical fact of interest? For South Koreans over 21, the vaccination rate averages more than 95%. This shows what we already know, which is that even without the new bivalent booster, which is more effective in prevention, vaccination reduces fatalities significantly. Florida is only 70% fully vaccinated and only 1% have received a booster dose. Also of interest, South Korea’s median age is higher than Florida’s. 

       Not Florida specific, but of interest is a Harvard study of Covid rates among children having had MMR vaccinations pre- school and the same age group in places such as Oregon, where MMR is not a mandated pre-school requirement. The results are revelatory. For the age groups studied, the rate of reported cases was significantly lower and actual cases were lower in severity in MMR vaccinated children. One theory is that the MMR imparts a somewhat different and non-specific viral resistance. These results are also evident in China, where measles vaccination is essentially universal and Italy where it is not. In fact, some medical experts have offered the opinion that in a shortage or absence of Covid vaccine, MMR might well be a good alternative.

 One last thing related to this theory is the case of the USS Theodore Roosevelt. The Navy’s testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier was revelatory. Roughly 60 percent of the over 4000 sailors who tested positive showed no symptoms of COVID-19. Of those with symptoms, just three were hospitalized and one died. That’s a fatality rate of .0025  cent compared to a US fatality rate of 1% (of confirmed cases.) Other than the younger age group there is one other significant fact. All US military enlistees and Academy graduates receive MMR vaccines in basic training. The takeaway? Anti-vaxxers are placing their children at enhanced risk of more severe Covid.