Facebook Repartee

FaceBook To and Fro

A friend posted a (truthful) statement regarding the fact that we, as a nation, accomplished more when the highest marginal tax rates were much higher. Another responded with, “So you don’t believe in the Laffer curve?” as a memory jogger, the Laffer Curve was a visual representation of “supply side” economic theory. It was overly simplistic and proven by Reagan to fail, even his eventual VP (GHW Bush) called it “VooDoo economics” while still a Presidential candidate.  

I responded:

       “XXX, you say "believe in" as if it were the Easter bunny. Actually, it's more like the tooth fairy. Even Reagan's "handlers" tried to have economists like Dr Pierre Renfret, and others, "talk him out of it." There is a modern analogy here: Essentially every legitimate economist in the US thought (and still thinks) Trump's tariffs were a bad idea. Like Reagan he refused to listen. Like Reagan, people are getting hurt (remember the Reagan recession, followed by increasing deficits?).  As of now, the Trump tariffs have cost an additional $32 billion annually in increased farm subsidies. Meanwhile Brazil is delighted to supply China with soybeans at a lower price. Add to that the extra cost to every US household of the tariffs paid on Chinese imports.

        If you ever needed convincing that Trump is moron, consider the statement that "China will pay the tariffs!" Any high school economics student knows that is bullshit. The importer always pays, and always adds the cost to the retail price. independent studies show that the cost per household of the Trump tariffs has added a total of about $850 X 128 million households annually. For the math challenged that's another $109 billion annually. Adding the increased tariff cost to the increased farm subsidy cost gives us $141 billion. Of course, we just add it to the deficit, right? In 2017, these ill-advised tariffs costs constituted 21% of the entire federal deficit!

       Then  go back to the 8 consecutive single digit or zero deficit years under Eisenhower when the highest marginal tax rate was 91%. The Laffer curve is an opinion, which by the way has NEVER been shown in actual practice to be valid over time. On the other hand, however, tracking the Federal deficit overtime, (you know actual historical fact?) shows that higher marginal taxes and lower deficits generally go hand in hand. It isn't hard and fast, because economics is the softest of soft sciences, but the data is there.

This was a response to a Trumper who cited the “several thousands” as real numbers for Covid deaths.

“No, XXX, to minimize the reality of CoVid, they simply stopped considering a death from a subsequent or related cause as a Covid death. Chadwick Bosman, lamentably, died from multiple organ failure, but I guarantee the death certificate says “colon cancer.” Similarly, many cancer deaths are from kidney failure, never listed as "renal failure" but as cancer. In like manner,

 those who die from flu frequently die from pneumonia as a result of contracting the flu. Covid is similar, in that like SARS, avian flu, H1N1, etc, the lungs are a significant target. 8% of all Covid deaths are considered to be from pneumonia/respiratory failure, that figure, alone, is 486,281! 

       Add in those with compromised respiratory systems like those with COPD and it's larger. In fact, those with COPD who contract Covid have a 63% chance of severe illness and 60% of those will die. Add in those with coronary issues which are pushed to death by Covid, and the numbers expand significantly. One last example, some, especially the young, who die after contracting flu, die due to co-infection with another germ, usually bacteria such as strep; or aggravation of existing conditions such as heart disease and asthma. They still call these "flu deaths". 

       Mark Twain famously said, “There are three types of lies – lies, damned lies, and statistics.” If I wanted to minimize the public's concern, I might tell the 7500 death lie, which is both a “fudged” statistic and a damned lie. That's what it is, a “twofer” of prevarication.

Johns Hopkins has done the most comprehensive data collection ever done to study a disease and its effects world-wide. I tend to believe them more than a politically motivated misleading number mill.

       And, finally, a Trumpite concurred with his deity that he had, in fact,  “kept all his promises” a claim he reiterated in the RNC ballyhoo several times. I thought it might be “fun” to check some of the more ludicrous ones.

“Who else could take 16 vacations, play over 100 rounds of golf and hold over 300 fundraisers while serving as POTUS besides @BarackObama?”  (Trump campaign tweet)

"I love golf, but if I were in the White House, I don't think I'd ever see Turnberry again," he said in February 2016, referring to the famous course he owns in Scotland. "I don't think I'd ever see Doral again," he added, referring to the famous course he owns in Miami. "I don't ever think I'd see anything — I just want to stay in the White House and work my ass off, make great deals, right? Who's gonna leave?" (interview NBC, August 2016)

As it happened, Trump, that’s who’s gonna leave …a lot!

        Bearing in mind that Trump complained about 8 years of Obama golf and vacations and comparing the two, week for week, at the 160-week point:

160 weeks: Obama golf outings 82, Trump 200

Where: Trump: only private clubs, flying to most of them

            Obama: 62% military courses (drive to many of them,)         20% private, 18% public.       

Days Trump has spent at Mar a Lago: 127

Cost of flights to Mar a Lago (30 so far): over $59,110,000

Days Trump has spent at Bedminster (NJ): 75

Cost of flights to Bedminster (23 so far): $18,375,500

Trump has visited his clubs once every 4.7 days since his inauguration! Projected visits to golf clubs in four years: 314

Projected visits in eight years: 628

Vacations: Obama 16 total (8 years), Trump 27 (3.3 years)

 “China is paying the tariffs.”:

  The cost of the tariff comes directly out of the bank account of an American importer when the good arrives at the port. As of the end of 2019, US companies have paid $46 billion more in tariffs than they would have without Trump's tariffs. Guess who they passed it on to?

       We're not a rich country. We're a debtor nation...We've got to get rid of the $19 trillion in debt," "I think I could do it fairly quickly...I would say over a period of eight years." (Trump said this to a The Washington Post reporter in April 2016)

        This statement alone should have been the wake-up call to any and all who still considered him a savvy businessman. Sadly, the deplorables neither understood it nor cared to learn. The reality is that, three years into his presidency, the deficit is 68 percent higher than when he started, and this excludes the effects of Covid.  Deficit “hawk,” Trump, has since run deficits of 3.4%, 3.8%, 4.6%, and 4.8%, with 2021 projected at 4.1% of GNP (that was pre Covid which, alone, will add an estimated $3.7 Trillion to the deficit.) All these have been incurred with what Trump touts as “The strongest economy ever.” There is an explanation. Trump has a cavalier attitude about the nation’s debt load similar to his corporate debt. During the campaign, he actually said the nation could "borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal.”

  Let’s make that  deal Mr. Trump. Get the fuck out. Just go away.